Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #381 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:40 am

A system with a little bit of convection with a weak LLC is upgraded. But a strong LLC. But is getting its covnection sheared off. In has 40 to 45 knot winds is not on quickscats is not? This is serious quastion...This system has a warm core with a LLC at the surface backed up by quickscats. Why is it less liked then the one above which is weaker?

This doe's not make any sense to me at all.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #382 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:00 am

Up to 30 knots with 1008 pressure. But the quickscats show it stronger.

000

WHXX01 KWBC 250653

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050825 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050825 0600 050825 1800 050826 0600 050826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.6N 43.3W 18.4N 44.5W 19.2N 45.6W 20.3N 46.8W

BAMM 17.6N 43.3W 18.3N 44.7W 18.9N 45.7W 19.7N 47.0W

A98E 17.6N 43.3W 17.7N 45.2W 17.9N 46.8W 18.5N 48.4W

LBAR 17.6N 43.3W 18.0N 44.7W 18.8N 46.2W 19.9N 47.7W

SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 45KTS

DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050827 0600 050828 0600 050829 0600 050830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.5N 48.3W 24.0N 51.1W 26.5N 53.1W 30.1N 54.9W

BAMM 20.6N 48.4W 22.4N 51.3W 23.6N 54.0W 24.8N 56.8W

A98E 19.6N 49.8W 21.3N 52.8W 23.6N 55.3W 28.0N 55.8W

LBAR 21.8N 49.7W 26.7N 52.5W 31.0N 51.2W 32.5N 48.4W

SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 71KTS 75KTS

DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 71KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 40.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

#383 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:33 am

TWO 5:30 AM:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE AT BEST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

Some good news for the system, shear is expected to relax.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #384 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:38 am

A ball of convection is forming right over the LLC. It would not take long if it where to keep developing to make this something.

#385 Postby **N2FSU** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:46 am

2:00 a.m. model plots:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

wxwatcher91 · #386 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:54 am

ok this is not necessarily what I think will happen, but does anybody get the feeling that 97L might slip under the weakness??? could this be an east coast threat?

#387 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:13 am

25/1145 UTC 17.3N 44.0W TOO WEAK 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

WHAT A POOR AND MISERABLE LIFE THAT 97L HAS TO ENDURE.

#388 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:23 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 1200 050826 0000 050826 1200 050827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 44.2W 18.1N 45.5W 18.9N 46.6W 20.0N 47.9W
BAMM 17.2N 44.2W 18.0N 45.5W 18.6N 46.6W 19.5N 47.8W
A98E 17.2N 44.2W 17.2N 46.0W 17.5N 47.6W 18.2N 49.1W
LBAR 17.2N 44.2W 17.8N 45.6W 18.8N 47.1W 19.9N 48.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 1200 050828 1200 050829 1200 050830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 49.3W 23.0N 52.0W 24.7N 54.2W 27.4N 55.3W
BAMM 20.4N 49.2W 21.8N 52.1W 22.5N 55.1W 23.1N 57.8W
A98E 19.2N 50.5W 20.8N 53.9W 22.8N 56.7W 25.4N 57.4W
LBAR 22.1N 50.8W 26.5N 53.9W 31.4N 53.5W 34.9N 51.0W
SHIP 57KTS 69KTS 79KTS 85KTS
DSHP 57KTS 69KTS 79KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 44.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 42.4W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 40.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Nothing new. We ask for the shear to relax a little bit for this system to develop into Lee. Yes, into Lee. Because if it has been able to develop into a 35 mph low pressure system with 30 knots of wind shear on top, then if shear relaxes it seems logical for winds to increase, and just a minor increase will take this system to tropical storm status.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #389 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:26 am

The ship go's nuts over this system...WOW

Also a few of those models are more west...

wxwatcher91 · #390 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:31 am

sorry but the SHIPS doesnt mean much... I'm pretty sure it strengthens anything as long as it doesnt interact with land... but I suppose it IS something to note that the SHIPS had 97L at 75kts at 120hrs last run and now is up to 85kts at 120hrs

Hyperstorm · #391 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:42 am

Don't take into the account the SHIPS AT ALL.

If it were for the SHIPS, this system would have been a hurricane a LOOONG time ago. Ever since this became an invest, SHIPS has strengthened the system markedly despite of the hostile environment. The same thing happened with TD 10. I'm starting to lose confidence on this model.

BTW, don't get too excited about conditions becoming favorable in the near future. Check out your favorite Water Vapor Loop and you'll see a trough (similar to the one that killed TD 10), that is dropping southward just to west of the system. I have backed off on any development during the next 24 hours. It will be more like the next few days at the earliest.

Even if the system takes a definite turn northward, it will have to deal with a dropping ULL to its NE...

Hyperstorm · #392 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:51 am

Forgot to add that as long as the storm has its vigorous LLC exposed like it is now, it will continue moving generally W-WNW. I don't expect it to move northward in the near future. Yes, the convection has moved more northward, but you have to look at the core of the system, which is an explosed LLC a few hundred miles to the west of the convection and under some VERY dry air in the mid-levels.

While it will be traversing through a shear axis over the next few days, once it moves further west, it may encounter a more favorable environment and...who knows? we might have a similar track to Irene if this trend continues.

#393 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:46 pm

Steve Lyons said 97L has winds of 40mph. Why hasn't it been upgraded? I'm confused. Is is because its no threat to land at this point?

#394 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:52 pm

Cookiely wrote:Steve Lyons said 97L has winds of 40mph. Why hasn't it been upgraded? I'm confused. Is is because its no threat to land at this point?

perhaps because its so far out and not bothering anybody. usually when that is the case, they just tend to take their time and are more relaxed in terms of upgrading.

<RICKY>

#395 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:56 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Cookiely wrote:Steve Lyons said 97L has winds of 40mph. Why hasn't it been upgraded? I'm confused. Is is because its no threat to land at this point?

perhaps because its so far out and not bothering anybody. usually when that is the case, they just tend to take their time and are more relaxed in terms of upgrading.

<RICKY>

When they get Katrina out of the way, and 97L gets closer to the islands (big if) they will get around to poor old 97L. :lol:

HurricaneGirl · #396 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:58 pm

krysof · #397 Postby **krysof** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 4:58 pm

97L is almost completely ignored, but in storm2k.org everyone cares for all systems no matter how far or weak they are

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #398 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:01 pm

In a record year systems like this are very important.

Hyperstorm · #399 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 5:41 pm

If they upgrade tonight or tomorrow, it will based only and solely on the fact that this has been a depression over the past day or so. If they want continuity, they should not upgrade it now, since it is a disorganized mess. What are they going to say when they upgrade? The disturbance has become better organized today? Don't think so...

Moisture levels seem to be improving because it has pulled some moisture from the ITCZ northward, but the wind shear remains strong. Additional development (from what it has been over the past 24 hours) will be slow, if any, during the next few days until it gets past the shear axis zone.

#400 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:55 pm

I just looked at the satalite and and it looks as if she is moving Sw?

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