According to Ship Model, Katrina's winds are up to 60 mph

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HURAKAN
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According to Ship Model, Katrina's winds are up to 60 mph

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:43 am

Image

This will probably occur in the 11 AM advisory.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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wzrgirl1
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#2 Postby wzrgirl1 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:44 am

how do you know this?
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:45 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:how do you know this?


Weather Underground always has the winds in the model maps, they are updated hours before the advisory comes.
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:45 am

Comes from the models:
Also a pressure drop to 997.

WHXX01 KWBC 251226
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 1200 050826 0000 050826 1200 050827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 79.0W 26.1N 80.2W 25.9N 81.6W 25.7N 82.9W
BAMM 26.2N 79.0W 26.3N 80.1W 26.1N 81.3W 25.9N 82.5W
A98E 26.2N 79.0W 26.1N 80.1W 25.9N 81.2W 25.3N 81.6W
LBAR 26.2N 79.0W 26.2N 80.4W 26.2N 81.7W 26.1N 82.9W
SHIP 50KTS 57KTS 66KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 57KTS 39KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 1200 050828 1200 050829 1200 050830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.4N 84.2W 25.3N 86.1W 26.5N 86.9W 30.0N 84.0W
BAMM 25.6N 83.7W 25.6N 85.4W 27.0N 86.0W 30.9N 81.2W
A98E 25.0N 81.9W 24.7N 82.6W 25.3N 83.0W 26.9N 81.9W
LBAR 25.9N 84.4W 26.3N 87.3W 28.3N 89.0W 31.1N 87.5W
SHIP 80KTS 91KTS 96KTS 92KTS
DSHP 43KTS 54KTS 48KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 26.0N LONM12 = 77.6W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.5N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: Breaking News - Katrina's winds up to 60 mph

#5 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:46 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

This will probably occur in the 11 AM advisory.


That's the SHIPS model intensity prediction...The initial intensity is used when running the tropical suite.
Last edited by rockyman on Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:47 am

So you're just assuming the SHIP model has it right and calling that "breaking news?" :roll:
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#7 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:47 am

They just reran the models again. They initialized at 50kts or 60mph.
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