How sharp of a right turn will Katrina make..?

[Josephine96]

I've been viewing the models this morning and 2 of them did show Katrina barely making it into the GOM.. then making a sharp right hand turn back over the peninsula..

That'd kinda make me have a little more wind but a lot more rain..

What are ya'lls take on this

[tronbunny]

You are observant, john.

According to the 00Z consensus graphic, we have a more dramatic (S and E) recurve after the 2 day due west trek...

[shaggy]

CMC UKMET and GFS all show this solution and run it up the west coast of Florida then back along the SE coast of the US alot depends on the ridge and how much it breaks down.Some models actually show intensification after it re-emerges in the atlantic but nobody knows for sure just have to wait and see what the NHC thinks

[gatorcane]

I think that is very possible....a slow moving system tends to be more erratic and the trough is digging down. It all depends on how strong the weakeness will be but it seems the NHC keeps bending it right each advisory.

[rockyman]

The latest GFDL has shifted back west (and continues to insist on the run around south Florida)...anyone know where to find the detailed GFDL track? The FSU and PSU sites are still showing the old GFDL:

[gatorcane]

Model runs (including GFDL):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[WindRunner]

Man, the LBAR sure does look interesting in terms of intensity, but I want to see the A98E verify!

[MortisFL]

The latest GFDL has shifted back west (and continues to insist on the run around south Florida)...anyone know where to find the detailed GFDL track? The FSU and PSU sites are still showing the old GFDL:

GFDL has been consistently south of FL before making the bend around the state into the panhandle. Unless something drastic happens, I dont see Katrina missing SE Florida.

[HurricaneGirl]

The blue one is going right over Jacksonville.

[rockyman]

Model runs (including GFDL):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Thanks, boca! But the latest GFDL is not showing up yet....I just checked again and it looks like the 6z might be getting ready to appear (the 6z Hillary is now up).

[deltadog03]

actually if you seen the models they are slowly shifting west...

[NastyCat4]

The models are out to lunch, as per usual. The storm will probably track
West, and then turn NW or WNW, but not hug the coast, or pull a right hook. They are overplaying that turn, with bad data.

[Scorpion]

I agree NastyCat4.

[Brent]

The models are out to lunch, as per usual. The storm will probably track
West, and then turn NW or WNW, but not hug the coast, or pull a right hook. They are overplaying that turn, with bad data.

I think so too.

[Ivanhater]

ya, im not getting the hard turn either

[N2Storms]

Evidently Derek Ortt isn't either. If you read his updated forecasts in the analysis forum he has made only a slight right shift in his forecast from yesterday which put Katrina's second landfall right around Pensacola or just west of Pensacola. He is also much more aggressive with his intensity forecast than is the NHC...I think the NHC will eventually shift their track a little left, but until it enters the GOMEX it's still way to premature to speculate on a 2nd landfall...I think it would be very prudent for anyone from the upper Tx coast to the FL West Coast to keep their guard up and not take anything for granted this far out...

[deltadog03]

there are no questions for me....looks like a very strong ridge right now....time will tell what happens later...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... ge=800x600

[dwg71]

Evidently Derek Ortt isn't either. If you read his updated forecasts in the analysis forum he has made only a slight right shift in his forecast from yesterday which put Katrina's second landfall right around Pensacola or just west of Pensacola. He is also much more aggressive with his intensity forecast than is the NHC...I think the NHC will eventually shift their track a little left, but until it enters the GOMEX it's still way to premature to speculate on a 2nd landfall...I think it would be very prudent for anyone from the upper Tx coast to the FL West Coast to keep their guard up and not take anything for granted this far out...

NHC actually shifted their forecast East. 5AM had storm as far west as 85W and now its 84.5W. Katrina isn't coming to the upper TX coast, NHC is pretty confident in their track forecast, it hasnt changed much in 3 days.

[Stormcenter]

Evidently Derek Ortt isn't either. If you read his updated forecasts in the analysis forum he has made only a slight right shift in his forecast from yesterday which put Katrina's second landfall right around Pensacola or just west of Pensacola. He is also much more aggressive with his intensity forecast than is the NHC...I think the NHC will eventually shift their track a little left, but until it enters the GOMEX it's still way to premature to speculate on a 2nd landfall...I think it would be very prudent for anyone from the upper Tx coast to the FL West Coast to keep their guard up and not take anything for granted this far out...

NHC actually shifted their forecast East. 5AM had storm as far west as 85W and now its 84.5W. Katrina isn't coming to the upper TX coast, NHC is pretty confident in their track forecast, it hasnt changed much in 3 days.

Did anybody really think she would come to the Upper Texas coast?
I know I didn't but I will say it would not surprise me one bit if she made landfall further west (AL/FL stateline) than what the NHC is predicting.
Also, I hate to beat a dead horse but the NHC did have Cindy making landfall in Texas 2-3 days out and she ended up in LA/MS so nothing is written in stone especially with a slow moving storm like Katrina that is over 3 days out or more from making the second landfall. IMO

[BamaMan]

I'm starting to think she will be strictly a peninsula storm, and if she does make it back into the Gulf it will not be by very much. JMHO