The worse case scenario for Miami-Dade is an Aventura hit.

[sprink52]

An estimated 25% of Dades population lives in hi-rise condos just south of the Broward county line in Aventura. You can't drive around there on a good day, I can just imagine a derect hit by even a Cat 1 or 2.

[Brent]

What are the building codes like down there??? Lot of those high-rises are gonna have broken windows.

[Foladar]

I think worst case scenario for Miami-Dade would be that GFDL model.

[Brent]

I think worst case scenario for Miami-Dade would be that GFDL model.

Yes... or maybe a hair north. The Upper Keys would be inudated by surge in the GFDL scenario.

[JtSmarts]

On Tropical Round Table they said a CAT 1 into the center of Miami would cause around 6 Billion dollars in damage.

[sprink52]

Brent, the current code is strong but many of those buildings were built in the '60s & '70s before the good codes were law. That area is also surrounded by water and will be vulnerable to surge.

[fci]

An estimated 25% of Dades population lives in hi-rise condos just south of the Broward county line in Aventura. You can't drive around there on a good day, I can just imagine a derect hit by even a Cat 1 or 2.

Well, Aventura is at 25.9, almost directly where she is supposed to head if she stays due west.

If there actually is an eyewall, those huge condos will be in it.
Unless it jogs a bit north which looks less likely at this hour.

26.0 is actually Hallandale which is about 5 stop lights north of Aventura

[NCHurricane]

On Tropical Round Table they said a CAT 1 into the center of Miami would cause around 6 Billion dollars in damage.

I heard that too. That got my attention.

[The Big Dog]

Brent, the current code is strong but many of those buildings were built in the '60s & '70s before the good codes were law. That area is also surrounded by water and will be vulnerable to surge.

The Tiara, on Singer Island, was ripped up pretty good by Frances last year, and it got probably no more than Cat 1 winds. It was built in 1977, and I remember reading that the exterior walls were basically stucco over styrofoam. Builders got away with a lot back then.

[Patrick99]

The worst case scenario is a repeat of 1926, approaching from the ESE, right up the gut of the Miami River, storm surge completely reclaiming South Beach.

That's not gonna happen here. hehe

[sponger]

Lyons was saying no farther N of 27. Where is that southern broward?

[The Big Dog]

27N is about the Palm Beach-Martin line. 26N would be a little south of Fort Lauderdale.

[Brent]

Lyons was saying no farther N of 27. Where is that southern broward?

27 N is Jupiter Inlet... Palm Beach/Martin county line

[fci]

27N is about the Palm Beach-Martin line. 26N would be a little south of Fort Lauderdale.

26 is Hallandale, just north of the Dade/Broward line