Disturbing Scenario

[Scorpion]

They said 70 knots at landfall if it didnt get a inner core together. Well look it has.

[jkt21787]

I think we all know how to treat Scorpion's statements. Even after having a forced vacation already it doesn't seemed to have helped. He will make another statement soon like before and we won't see him again. Until then, ignore.

[johngaltfla]

a burst in the CDO certainly doesnt mean its close to Cane status, probably a trend toward developing....but doubt very seriously a cane at 11....maybe 55-60 mph TS....
As far as WPB..landfall...we shall see!

Agreed. By landfall it has the potential to be a Cat 1 IMHO. The gasoline to light that fire is in front of it with the 88-90 degree SSTs.

The disturbing part of this storm scenario is not so much the landfall on the east coast, but the potential for a storm staying as a Cat 1 and moving parallel to the west coast of Florida for 36-48 hours. The devestation would be unimaginable because like south Florida, the ground is overly saturated here.

[gkrangers]

They said 70 knots at landfall if it didnt get a inner core together. Well look it has.

Can you please point that out in the discussion ? Because I can't find it.

[Brent]

NHC DOES say this:

IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

But not about a core... about dry air.

[Foladar]

They said 70 knots at landfall if it didnt get a inner core together. Well look it has.

Can you please point that out in the discussion ? Because I can't find it.

He also claims its 50mph. We didn't find that one either.

[gkrangers]

NHC DOES say this:

IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

But not about a core... about dry air.

Right. Talking about the dry air mixing out of the core would be more accurate.

[johngaltfla]

They said 70 knots at landfall if it didnt get a inner core together. Well look it has.

Can you please point that out in the discussion ? Because I can't find it.

000
URNT12 KNHC 242318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/23:05:30Z
B. 25 deg 59 min N
077 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 215 deg 016 nm
F. 273 deg 035 kt
G. 216 deg 019 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 21 C/ 246 m
J. 24 C/ 246 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0312A Katrina OB 17
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 215 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
RAGGED EYEWALL

[TheShrimper]

Scorpion, you need to learn to keep your young mouth shut every now and then. The last thing people in S. Dade want is a landfalling hurricane. Do you know about the agriculture/nursery business's that abound there? Do you know that everytime there are TS force winds forecasted, every containerized tree and plant at everyone of the hundreds of nurseries there has to be manually flipped on it's side?
These poor bastards had to do it 4 times last year, so I dont think anyone in Homestead, Fl. City or the Redlands want anything to do with a storm, do you? Lets not even bring up what happened 13 years ago, when you were still in diapers.

[HurryKane]

Yes, and the storm is frighteningly semetrical.

I love this new layout... But where did the spelchek button go??!!?

The board has been temporarily changed to the subRebel template to ease up on the resources and SpelChek isn't available with this one. The board was periodically running slow earlier today but is now flying again.

Btw, this template is always offered for anyone who prefers it. Just go into your profile and choose the subRebel template under Board Style.

I use it all the time because it's a little less eye-catching at...ah...you know, where they pay me.

[cjrciadt]

The only disturbing scenario is it's slow movement speed giving it a shot at High Catagory 1 - Mid Catagory 2 before land becomes an issue. If this occurs the cyclone would have evolved to a phase where it can sustain itself and intensify considerably in a short amount of time. The GFDL deepens the storm rapidly at this stage (Strong Catagory 1) to a Catagory 3/4 due to this fact, and because of the way deep storms react, the whole forcast package may just be as well thrown out the window.

Or worst, it can crawl to a stop like Frances and idle for 12 to 16 hours gaining strength

[Rainband]

The only disturbing scenario is it's slow movement speed giving it a shot at High Catagory 1 - Mid Catagory 2 before land becomes an issue. If this occurs the cyclone would have evolved to a phase where it can sustain itself and intensify considerably in a short amount of time. The GFDL deepens the storm rapidly at this stage (Strong Catagory 1) to a Catagory 3/4 due to this fact, and because of the way deep storms react, the whole forcast package may just be as well thrown out the window.

Or worst, it can crawl to a stop like Frances and idle for 12 to 16 hours gaining strength

upwelling

[gkrangers]

The only disturbing scenario is it's slow movement speed giving it a shot at High Catagory 1 - Mid Catagory 2 before land becomes an issue. If this occurs the cyclone would have evolved to a phase where it can sustain itself and intensify considerably in a short amount of time. The GFDL deepens the storm rapidly at this stage (Strong Catagory 1) to a Catagory 3/4 due to this fact, and because of the way deep storms react, the whole forcast package may just be as well thrown out the window.

Or worst, it can crawl to a stop like Frances and idle for 12 to 16 hours gaining strength

upwelling

Gulfstream.

[gatorcane]

I'm afraid I have to agree with Scorpion a CAT 2/3 is not out of the question here folks, tomorrow morning people may just wake up to that possible scenario....reasons are simple, it should slow down to under 5mph within the next 24 hours and may even stall over the Gulf stream...waters are at 31C...shear is nonexistent and the dry air is just about to go bye, bye....in addition we are seeing a major blowup of convection near the center over the past couple of hours...pressures will drop accordingly later tonight...so I think it can happen...

[Derek Ortt]

not over the Gulfstream

water moves too fast for upwelling

[gatorcane]

Dr. Steve Lyons is now giving the CAT 2 chance a possibility and he says "at least a CAT1"....reasons follow:

1) it may stall or creep over the water
2) it has a very small concentrated circulation which would allow more
rapid strenghening before reaching land

I say at least a CAT1 if not a CAT2

[johngaltfla]

Dr. Steve Lyons is now giving the CAT 2 chance a possibility and he says "at least a CAT1"....reasons follow:

1) it may stall or creep over the water
2) it has a very small concentrated circulation which would allow more
rapid strenghening before reaching land

I say at least a CAT1 if not a CAT2

I just saw the same thing and the uncertainty everyone has after it makes landfall. All of which are disturbing to us west coasters.

Good luck to all you folks in SE Florida btw. This is one of those seasons, as the NHC once said:

SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

[THead]

Dr. Steve Lyons is now giving the CAT 2 chance a possibility and he says "at least a CAT1"....reasons follow:

1) it may stall or creep over the water
2) it has a very small concentrated circulation which would allow more
rapid strenghening before reaching land

I say at least a CAT1 if not a CAT2

Its funny cause an hour ago he was giving reasons why it WOULDN'T be a candidate for rapid intensification. He was saying Katrina didn't have 2 of the 3 elements required. Changed his tune quick in the last hour it appears.

[otowntiger]

I'm afraid I have to agree with Scorpion a CAT 2/3 is not out of the question here folks, tomorrow morning people may just wake up to that possible scenario....reasons are simple, it should slow down to under 5mph within the next 24 hours and may even stall over the Gulf stream...waters are at 31C...shear is nonexistent and the dry air is just about to go bye, bye....in addition we are seeing a major blowup of convection near the center over the past couple of hours...pressures will drop accordingly later tonight...so I think it can happen...

Cat 2/3 is a huge stretch in my opinion. You make a reasonable argument for strengthing but we have to keep in mind that what we have now is a weak t.s. at only 45 mph and is not showing signs of rapid intensification currently. Sure there has been steady organizing, but she is definitely not bombing. She seems somewhat reluctant to really get her act together for some reason.

[gatorcane]

Have you seen the convection blowing up around the center??? That is very disturbing in my opinion...also outflow is looking very nice over the past couple of hours....

it should be a hurricane later tonight....