Tropical Storm Irwin at EPAC

[cycloneye]

The EPAC continues active now with a new system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think thats Jose...He made it across.

[cycloneye]

I think thats Jose...He made it across.

I think you are right.He crossed those Sierra Madre mountains.

[WindRunner]

, they shouldn't get any credit if this one gets named!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP912005) ON 20050825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 0000 050825 1200 050826 0000 050826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 103.7W 17.0N 105.4W 17.5N 107.4W 18.3N 109.6W
BAMM 16.7N 103.7W 17.0N 105.3W 17.4N 107.3W 18.0N 109.6W
LBAR 16.7N 103.7W 16.8N 106.1W 17.5N 109.0W 18.4N 112.2W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 0000 050828 0000 050829 0000 050830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 111.8W 20.4N 116.2W 21.5N 120.4W 22.8N 123.7W
BAMM 18.5N 111.9W 19.3N 116.6W 19.9N 121.2W 20.2N 125.6W
LBAR 19.3N 115.8W 20.8N 121.9W 21.7N 126.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 57KTS 48KTS 40KTS
DSHP 57KTS 57KTS 48KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 103.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 101.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 98.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Models for the ex Jose Remanants.If this system develops it will be named Irwin.

[LAwxrgal]

Oh sheesh.

At least he doesn't change gender.

[Brent]

At least it gets a new name...

[HURAKAN]

25/0600 UTC 16.9N 103.7W T1.0/1.0 91E




Looks good, let see how much it develops before reaching cool waters.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at that over the BOC this morning

Also this system appears pretty good this morning. It may of holded on to enough of the LLC to be made Jose again?

[superfly]

Look at that over the BOC this morning

Also this system appears pretty good this morning. It may of holded on to enough of the LLC to be made Jose again?

New basin, new name.

[Thunder44]

How do we know this is Jose's remmants for sure? The LLC dissapated and TPC doesn't say that is that. Did anybody track the MLC or whatever was left of it?

[HURAKAN]

25/1145 UTC 16.9N 104.4W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251032
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILARY... LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN




The EPAC may be in third base ready to score another system.

[gatorcane]

damn EPAC

Active EPAC = inactive Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

25/1145 UTC 16.9N 104.4W T1.5/1.5 91E


Don't know why, but T numbers are now adjusted to 1.5.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251617
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILARY... LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING
WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (EP092005) ON 20050825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 1800 050826 0600 050826 1800 050827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 105.8W 17.3N 108.3W 17.6N 111.0W 18.0N 113.5W
BAMM 17.0N 105.8W 17.6N 108.1W 18.3N 110.6W 19.0N 113.2W
LBAR 17.0N 105.8W 17.5N 108.1W 18.1N 111.0W 19.0N 114.2W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 1800 050828 1800 050829 1800 050830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 116.3W 19.9N 121.8W 21.4N 127.3W 22.5N 132.8W
BAMM 19.7N 116.1W 21.3N 122.1W 23.0N 127.8W 24.3N 133.2W
LBAR 19.9N 117.6W 22.2N 123.5W 24.1N 127.8W 16.5N 131.3W
SHIP 58KTS 50KTS 38KTS 28KTS
DSHP 58KTS 50KTS 38KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 105.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 103.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 101.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First advisorie at 2 PM PDT.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This came from Jose MLC that crossed over..So is it his son or him we are looking at?

[Hyperstorm]

This is actually not even the MLC from Jose that made it across. This is PART of the disturbance associated with Jose that persisted just off the coast of Mexico as Jose was making landfall.

This is similar to Hurricane Iris in 2001 when it dissipated over the mountains of Mexico, but the overall disturbance was already developing over the Eastern Pacific.

[hurricanefreak1988]

I was going to mention that about Iris. The remnants of it formed a new storm (Manuel, I believe). How lame is that, we contribute to an E-Pac storm, and don't even get credit for it. Oh well, that's the way the game is played.

damn EPAC

Active EPAC = inactive Atlantic

Well, that's usually the case in most seasons. However, this season, we haven't even been fazed by the E-Pac.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 252033
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB...WHICH ARE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES. CONVECTION IS STILL A LITTLE
THIN...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. IN
ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF
HURRICANE HILARY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY
LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST. BY 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND THIS SOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE GFDL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 7 KT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.2N 106.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.6N 107.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 112.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING