Amateur forecast for Katrina - 8:00 PM ET Aug 24

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Katrina Advisory 2
5:00 PM PDT Aug 24 2005 (8:00 PM EDT or 0Z Aug 25 2005)

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For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.

Please remember...tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
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Katrina has lost some of its convection over the evening...but that is quite normal with developing systems. In fact...just recently...a new burst of convection with cloud tops nearing -80°C flared up. Because of its good outflow and SST's near 30°C...rapid intensification is expected to occur in the next 12 to 24 hours. Erring on the side of caution...will only forecast a category 1 hurricane...as an upper-level low to the southwest of Katrina is somewhat hindering it. It should be noted that the GFDL...which just a day ago never brought Katrina above a tropical depression...is now forecasting a 935 mb hurricane affecting the Keys.

The models have continued to shift to the right. The GFNI is the left outlier...with Katrina making its final landfall in New Orleans...and excluding the CLIPPER...the LBAR is the right outlier...with Katrina nearing Myrtle Beach SC near the end of the period. Both of these solutions have been discarded...as has the BAM models...which take Katrina up the west coast of Florida. I have decided to change the forecast track little. The forecast track is on the left side of the model guidance envelope. Should the models have a bit more continuity and agreement...then the track might have to be shifted to the right in later forecasts.

Hurricane warnings may be needed for the east coast of Florida and Lake Okeechobee later tonight or tomorrow. Hurricane watches and/or tropical storm warnings may be needed for the west coast of Florida later tonight or tomorrow.

Areas all along the Gulf Coast should continue to watch Katrina carefully. Persons living in the hurricane watch area should begin their preparations as soon as possible. Katrina has the potential to become a potentially dangerous storm...with heavy rains being the main threat.

Forecaster Tang


Hour Position Intensity
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Initial 26.0N 77.6W 40 kt
12 hr 26.2N 78.2W 50 kt
24 hr 26.3N 79.0W 65 kt
36 hr 26.3N 79.9W 75 kt
48 hr 26.2N 80.9W 55 kt...inland
72 hr 26.3N 82.7W 50 kt...over GulfMex
96 hr 27.4N 85.7W 60 kt
120 hr 29.8N 87.6W 70 kt


Track:




A few notes here:
a) I will now only make amateur forecasts once a day due to school
b) JFYI, I think landfall is going to be around Deerfield Beach/Boca Raton area.

Comments and suggestions encouraged as always.

[Steve]

Nice post Tang. I have no idea whether or not you're right, but we'll see.

The big thing about Katrina is she is again teaching us the lesson that we saw with all the tropical storms landfalling in Southern Mexico this year. That lesson is the trend toward tightening of a system as it approaches and interacts with land from the east at roughly a 90 degree angle. Bastardi brought this up over the years and it seems to have merit. This is often seen in Texas and Mexico, but we don't get hits on Florida from near 270 all that often (as compared to other headings).

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Nice post Tang. I have no idea whether or not you're right, but we'll see.

The big thing about Katrina is she is again teaching us the lesson that we saw with all the tropical storms landfalling in Southern Mexico this year. That lesson is the trend toward tightening of a system as it approaches and interacts with land from the east at roughly a 90 degree angle. Bastardi brought this up over the years and it seems to have merit. This is often seen in Texas and Mexico, but we don't get hits on Florida from near 270 all that often (as compared to other headings).

Steve

Thanks Steve.

And if Katrina tightens then what does that mean???

[Steve]

better radar & satellite signatures from better organization and possibly corresponding pressure falls and/or windspeed increases. We'll have to wait and see if this pans out and if Katrina even hits +/- 270, but we should be able to watch that tomorrow via radar and sat.

Steve

[BamaMan]

Nice forecast . . . Well not really

[Bluefrog]

crap man ..Bama and I don't like those graphics ...YIKES