Disturbing Scenario

[Scorpion]

The present state of Katrina shows a very disturbing scenario. Cold cloudtops are forming around the center, and the winds are beginning to increase. IMO we could see a hurricane at 11. It is also starting to look like it is picking up speed. School is still in session tomorrow as well, even though it looks like Palm Beach County will be the landfall location.

[Swimdude]

Yes, and the storm is frighteningly semetrical.

I love this new layout... But where did the spelchek button go??!!?

[hurricanedude]

a burst in the CDO certainly doesnt mean its close to Cane status, probably a trend toward developing....but doubt very seriously a cane at 11....maybe 55-60 mph TS....
As far as WPB..landfall...we shall see!

[Scorpion]

It most likely is 50-55 mph right now according to recon reports.

[hurricanedude]

so 55-60 at 11 sounds reasonable

[Scorpion]

Will probably deepen more. It surely looks like the 80 mph estimate for landfall by the NHC will not happen.

[ohiostorm]

Cane tomorrow more then likely at this point. And I liked the old color scheme better.

[Foladar]

It most likely is 50-55 mph right now according to recon reports.

well the NHC says its 45mph right now

[SapphireSea]

59 MPH Flight Winds dictate a 50MPH Surface. I believe at 11, if this 'ragged' eye wall forms and takes advantage of the night convection, I would say 55 MPH @ 23:00 and 70 MPH @ 02:00 and about 80MPH @ 05:00. That may seem steep but I believe it has the potential.

[Scorpion]

Check the recon thread?

[Scorpion]

Sounds good SapphireSea.

[southerngale]

Yes, and the storm is frighteningly semetrical.

I love this new layout... But where did the spelchek button go??!!?

The board has been temporarily changed to the subRebel template to ease up on the resources and SpelChek isn't available with this one. The board was periodically running slow earlier today but is now flying again.

Btw, this template is always offered for anyone who prefers it. Just go into your profile and choose the subRebel template under Board Style.

[gkrangers]

Slowly intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane is not a disturbing scenario.

[Brent]

Still 45 mph at 8pm...

[Scorpion]

Intensifying to a Cat 1 tonight ahead of the NHC forecast and having the Gulf Stream waiting is a disturbing scenario.

[Foladar]

Intensifying to a Cat 1 tonight ahead of the NHC forecast and having the Gulf Stream waiting is a disturbing scenario.

Intesifying to a Cat 1 tonight?
It's still 45mph as of 8pm .. It's going to gain 29mph in the next 3 hours?

[Bluefrog]

I believe the new color format is to help speed up the board since there are so many people logging on right now.

[ohiostorm]

Most assumed it would be higher at 8pm.

[Scorpion]

Foladar... it is 50 mph right now, and if it deepens enough it can surely get to hurricane status maybe not 11 PM, but perhaps 2 AM.

[SapphireSea]

The only disturbing scenario is it's slow movement speed giving it a shot at High Catagory 1 - Mid Catagory 2 before land becomes an issue. If this occurs the cyclone would have evolved to a phase where it can sustain itself and intensify considerably in a short amount of time. The GFDL deepens the storm rapidly at this stage (Strong Catagory 1) to a Catagory 3/4 due to this fact, and because of the way deep storms react, the whole forcast package may just be as well thrown out the window.