New Orleans Met.

[gk1]

Can anyone tell me what John Gumm said on the noon edition of the news. Was out to lunch!!!

[skysummit]

I missed it also, but if you look on the WWLTV website, go to the forums. He usually posts his thoughts there.

[CaneCurious]

http://www.wwltv.com
In the box with Katrina info there is a link to the Noon weather forecast.

[CaneCurious]

[url]www.wwltv.com
In the box with Katrina info there is a link to the Noon weather forecast.[/url]

[HoumaLa]

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=1

[micktooth]

This is his update from this morning, it might be a little "dated" by now, but John is very thorough.




Joined: 22 Jul 2005
Posts: 152
Location: WWL Weathercenter

PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:38 am Post subject: Katrina Wednesday Afternoon Update Reply with quote
KATRINA BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER BAHAMAS

MAY BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FL

WILL MAKE SECONDARY LANDFALL ON NORTHERN GULF COAST

EVERYONE FROM LOUISIANA EAST TO FL PANHANDLE NEEDS TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THIS STORM

Discussion:

Not a lot of time to write this morning/afternoon, so this will not be a very detailed discussion by any means. The only thing we know for sure right now is that Katrina will eventually make landfall on Florida’s east coast, possibly as a 75-80 mph hurricane. It could be even stronger if it stays over water longer. Steering currents, while pushing it NW right now, will be weak, so expect a relatively slow motion.

Some earlier model guidance suggested a weakness in the ridge north of Katrina would result in more of a northerly motion, perhaps up the east coast of FL and into the Carolinas. This will not be the case. The weakness will fill and the ridge will build west forcing the storm on a more westerly heading across FL. The big question remains – where exactly will the storm cross FL (how far north or south) and how long will the storm spend over FL. These factors will have an influence on the final outcome for the northern Gulf coast.

As Katrina makes its way across FL, the ridge steering the storm appears to once again begin to weaken a bit. At the same time, another ridge located over Texas will begin to decay. The final position of these two ridges, their rate of decay, and the position of the storm relative to them at the time of decay will determine where the storm ends up.

I feel as though SE LA is on the far western edge of the possibilities for a secondary landfall while the western FL panhandle is on the eastern edge. Once the storm reemerges in the Gulf, it certainly has the potential to ramp back up to a hurricane. But this will largely depend on how much time it spends over FL and how much the inner core is disrupted while it is over land. In fact, the path over FL and how much time it spends there will help determine the final outcome in a big way.

Another thing to consider is the center of this storm is still difficult to locate right now. Since it is a developing storm, the center may also tend to relocate itself. All of this will have a bearing on the final track as it heads into the Gulf.

Certainly this storm bears watching for everyone along the Gulf coast, including here in New Orleans. So stay up with the forum and with weather reports this weekend. Going on the available data we have right now, it appears as though the highest risk for a secondary landfall would be along the FL panhandle, centered on Pensacola. However, everywhere from Pascagoula, MS to Apalachicola, FL could be fair game for the secondary landfall. That will all depend on how the system develops, how long it takes to get across FL, and where it comes off of FL. Oh, and of course, the position of the ridges.

More updates as I get the time….
_________________
John Gumm
Morning Meteorologist
WWL TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
jgumm@wwltv.com
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[deltadog03]

VERY WELL PUT!!!!!

[jkt21787]

I'm sure Breck is saying off the east coast of FL still.

[zoeyann]

Yes he is. He is saying that this will not get into the gulf, but that it will enter Florida and go up the Pennisula

[cajungal]

No get this. Bob Breck is saying it probably won't go in the gulf at all. He pulls out his "boyfriend" the Vipir and has it not going in the gulf. But up the penisula to Orlando. And he said if it does get in the Gulf, the high will push it south, and go into either Texas or Mexico. Totally defying what every other met is saying and the NHC.

[zoeyann]

I have serious doubts about that vipir model.

[Ivanhater]

No get this. Bob Breck is saying it probably won't go in the gulf at all. He pulls out his "boyfriend" the Vipir and has it not going in the gulf. But up the penisula to Orlando. And he said if it does get in the Gulf, the high will push it south, and go into either Texas or Mexico. Totally defying what every other met is saying and the NHC.

ugh, i dont know how yall put up with him

[gk1]

has been saying for years to look to the north to see which way the steering currents are. It is obvious to me that it will not go up the east coast of Florida. The NHC track seems way too far east too; but who can argue with their success lately!!!!!!!

[jkt21787]

Though I've never seen a Breck weather cast I will say this..


HE IS AN IDIOT!!!!

[Cape Verde]

No get this. Bob Breck is saying it probably won't go in the gulf at all. He pulls out his "boyfriend" the Vipir and has it not going in the gulf. But up the penisula to Orlando. And he said if it does get in the Gulf, the high will push it south, and go into either Texas or Mexico.

<P>Speaking from Texas, I'd certainly prefer Katrina to come onshore Florida and stay there. Unless it bombs during the next day, it's going to be a fairly minor hurricane at landfall, but if it gets into the Gulf it has a really good chance of becoming a major one, especially if it has a western track. <P>The western Gulf is red hot.

[Stormcenter]

No get this. Bob Breck is saying it probably won't go in the gulf at all. He pulls out his "boyfriend" the Vipir and has it not going in the gulf. But up the penisula to Orlando. And he said if it does get in the Gulf, the high will push it south, and go into either Texas or Mexico. Totally defying what every other met is saying and the NHC.

This doesn't sound that crazy the idea about it moving into Mexico or the lower Texas coast. But I still say it will make it into the GOM ala Georges track.

[cajungal]

I don't really watch Bob Breck. But, I channel surf just to hear if one met is saying something different. I watch Bob Breck when I need a good laugh. He is so over dramatic sometimes.

[Steve]

Wait and see what happens before you guys go off on Breck. I'm not quite the fan I used to be, but he's not done bad this year at all except for the one storm that affected us - Cindy. He stayed up all night with the public digesting his crow and taking his medicine for the pronouncements. However, should he happen to be right in this case (which I don't think he is), I think a bunch of you owe him an apology. Everyone jumped him for his Dennis and Emily calls since he said these weren't Louisiana storms. "How can he say this!!!! Storm X is at least 4 days away!!!" "Why, this guy is an idiot!!!" "He needs to get a clue!!!" etc.

As for Vipir, again, don't bash it if you don't know it. It has, at times, out-performed the NHC and all the other models. But as has been discussed over the last few days, it is NOT a long-range model solution. However, Bret, Arlene, Charley and Cindy were all storms where Vipir (as hosted by various tv stations) reigned superior to about anything else.

So how bout showing some respect for others? S2K doesn't want us calling each other idiots, we probably shouldn't refer to pro mets as such either. We can blast them for being wrong and for going out on a limb, but let's view the fruits they bear by the reality of what transpires.



Steve

[Stratosphere747]

Great thoughts Steve..

Until the NOAA info is taken in, anything 5 days out is still a guess....

[Steve]

Thanks. I think Bob's wrong in the fact that he's well known for his past bagging on other stations for breaching the One Voice agenda originally started by Dr. Frank when he was the head of the NHC. He's gotten fairly vicious over the years when he stuck to that mentality while other stations were more rogue and took more chances. What irks me about him is saying something is or isn't going to happen when he doesn't know for sure.

Steve