NHC 5pm update - heading more NW than Miami

[Florida_brit]

Not so good for me....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?5day

[sfwx]

FB,
I think our biggest impact here will be similar to Irene. I expect around 3-6" of rain. Power may be disrupted in some areas. There is some concern for tornadoes also. This is a baby compared to Frances and Jeanne.

Eric

[Florida_brit]

Likely to a baby ...but babies don't always sleep well and often wake up unexpectedly in the night..just remember Charley last year when it was meant to go on me track then suddenly went off on another one and suddenly increased dramatically in intensity,.

[fci]

FB,
I think our biggest impact here will be similar to Irene. I expect around 3-6" of rain. Power may be disrupted in some areas. There is some concern for tornadoes also. This is a baby compared to Frances and Jeanne.

Eric

Not necessarily a baby.

From the NHC 5:00 PM Discussion:
This is similar to the SHIPS intensity model...but much
less than the now very bullish GFDL model which brings Katrina to
111 kt just before landfall. It should be pointed out that with
SSTs near 31c and a low shear environment...conditions are
favorable for possible rapid intensification to occur between now
and landfall. This is suggested by the SHIPS model experimental
rapid intensification output...which indicates a 57 percent
probability of that occurring. The only inhibiting factor is the
dry air that surrounds Katrina and has been working its way into
the inner-core region and eroding the deep convection. If the dry
air mixes out within the next 12 hours...then intensities would
likely be higher than the official forecast is indicating.

They are currently forecasting 70 kts at landfall.
Higher than that would take it not very far from where Frances and Jeanne were.

[mahicks]

lol....this track would take it over my house Yeah right...

If it does, I promise I'll eat crow and possum on video tape and upload it for all to see

[Jevo]

Not so good for me....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?5day

With the slowdown of the storm its going to allow the strong high pressure ridge to build into the north of the system. At which point the ridge axis will be around 27/28N Synoptically speaking this storm does not cross florida north of the lake even with a relocation of the eye to the north. This storm will be a statewide event, although landfall will remain well south of the PB/Martin line

[jdray]

Not so good for me....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?5day

With the slowdown of the storm its going to allow the strong high pressure ridge to build into the north of the system. At which point the ridge axis will be around 27/28N Synoptically speaking this storm does not cross florida north of the lake even with a relocation of the eye to the north. This storm will be a statewide event, although landfall will remain well south of the PB/Martin line

Statewide being the key word.

[feederband]

Has it really slowed down it looks to me like its heading west at good speed...

[shaggy]

the ridge is suppose to be transient and move off the to the east fairly quickly.If this storm is a slow mover then it might not ever clear the west coast and re-emerge into the GOM.It may just ride right up the pennisula!I am not sure on what to think cause the models are somewhat split on forecast thinking.The only model that takes it as far west in the GOM as the nHC official is the GFDL.The rest recurve it sharply

[deltadog03]

not the euro...takes it at almost an ivan spot landfall....lets not just count our GFS mods...

[shaggy]

model consensus seems to point to a sharper turn and the euro seems to be an outlier along with the GFDL but thats just my opinion.WV shows the high sliding SE now but the ? remains at how fast does it move out and allow katrina to turn Northward.I am not a professional by any means but i say this will either hug the west coast or never clear the coast.


Anyone want to serve me some crow if i am wrong i got my A1 sauce ready!

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be moving more westerly now..........


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

[deltadog03]

i trust the euro over the gfs...anyday