Solar Activity Increases

[Aslkahuna]

There have been two Long Duration Event Proton Flares today. The first was a M2.6/1F 1600 sfu 10Flare at 22/0133Z and the second was a M5.6/1N 2800 sfu 10Flare at 22/1727Z. Both were in region 798. The >10 MeV proton flux levels rose to non event levels following the first flare and are rising now towards event levels in the wake of the second event.
The first was followed by Types II and IV sweep bursts and the second by a Type IV so CME activity is probable as well.

Steve

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA ISSUES SPACE WEATHER WARNING

Aug 24, 2005 — Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., observed an extreme—G5 on the NOAA space weather scales—geomagnetic storm, that began on August 24 at 2:12 a.m. EDT. Solar flares on August 22 produced minor to moderate radio blackouts (R1 and R2) and a moderate radiation storm (S2). Also, two large Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred on August 22, which resulted in today's extreme geomagnetic storming. The most intense period of geomagnetic storming occurred between 4:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. The storm is currently subsiding. However, additional but less intense geomagnetic storming is expected through Thursday.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2492.htm

[Aslkahuna]

Yes, the activity was somewhat stronger than the minor to major storming I forecast on my homepage. We did see some faint aurbo here-would have been more visible without the bright Moon. It's a bit unusual to see such intense Gemag activity from a near west limb flare event usually they are better for proton events (which we also have going on at this time).

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Yes, the activity was somewhat stronger than the minor to major storming I forecast on my homepage. We did see some faint aurbo here-would have been more visible without the bright Moon. It's a bit unusual to see such intense Gemag activity from a near west limb flare event usually they are better for proton events (which we also have going on at this time).

Steve

Well like you have mentioned before Cycle 23's behavior is anything but the usual. Just a note...I know where Katrina is or was...systems can develop quickly... but think about how many other recent systems never lived up to forecast expectations.

No systems since Emily has strengthened from TS to hurricane as quick as Katrina and the sun just recently happened to have it's strongest eruptional activity in almost a month.

It's not just the solar winds that can have an effect. They influence development and they can diminish devlopment when rising above the 500 km/sec level...

Once the peak is reached though these systems can develop better. Emily comes to mind and maybe Irene but not as sure about the latter. Mind is cloudy right now...


Jim

[gigabite]

No systems since Emily has strengthened from TS to hurricane as quick as Katrina and the sun just recently happened to have it's strongest eruptional activity in almost a month.

There are several correlations that can be drawn at the time of Katrina. I think the most important one is that the jump in strength was coincidental to the passing over the Mississippi’s warm water backflow water mound in the Gulf of Mexico. There has been a drought along the Mississippi Basin which has kept the outflow waters very warm the unusual depth of the warm water at the backflow mound combined with the passing of upper level cold air were major factors. Then there was a couple Moon passes south of the system and a Solar event that were kickers. Convection the vertical transport of heat and moisture was the prime ingredient.

Correlation Coefficient New Moon current position vs. analog year

2003 being on of the analog years used this year by
William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach in their
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND US LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2005
Dated 05/30/2005

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.ed.../2005/june2005/
2003 hurricane dates translated to 2005 dates
based on position and date of the New moon.
2005 08/03 = 2003 10 Hurricane JUAN 24-29 SEP 90 969 cat 2
2005 08/04 = 2003 11 Hurricane KATE 25 SEP-10 OCT 110 952 cat 3
2005 08/06 = 2003 12 Tropical Storm LARRY 27 SEP- 7 OCT 55 993
2005 08/28 = 2003 13 Tropical Storm MINDY 10-14 OCT 40 1002
2005 08/30 = 2003 14 Tropical Storm NICHOLAS 13 OCT- 1 NOV 60 990

SUMMARY TABLE actual August 2005
NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE MPH $MILLION
----------------------------------------------------------
TS HARVEY 2-8 AUG 65 0
H IRENE 4-18 AUG 105 0
TD TEN 13-14 AUG 35 0 TS
JOSE 22-23 AUG 50 1 **
H KATRINA 23-31 AUG 175 ** **
TS LEE 28 AUG - 40 0
----------------------------------------------------------

Storm # 2003 interpolated 2005 actual difference
1 03 H 02 TS 1
2 04 H 04 H 0
3 13 TS 22 TS 9
4 22 TS 23 H 1
5 23 TS 28 TS 5
Correlation Coefficient 32 percent

This indicates that 32 percent of the differences in the dates of storm occurrences can be accounted for by the position of the current New Moon sub point relative to the position of the New Moon for any analog year.

The cautionary not is that this is the result after one sample. (the first one)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No systems since Emily has strengthened from TS to hurricane as quick as Katrina and the sun just recently happened to have it's strongest eruptional activity in almost a month.

Jim

Is it possible to at this time foresee a possible sun eruption activity in the next month?

[Aslkahuna]

Not with any accuracy. We can anticipate increases in activity but specific events can not be forecast very long in advance.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

No systems since Emily has strengthened from TS to hurricane as quick as Katrina and the sun just recently happened to have it's strongest eruptional activity in almost a month.

Jim

Is it possible to at this time foresee a possible sun eruption activity in the next month?

I am not sure what you mean exactly. There have been some sizeable eruptions the prior 72 hours.

Are you talking about forecasting a specific date for and eruption or an upcoming developing trend ? The latter I made in early June over in the TWC Forum and you may have read it over there. Nobody can go back and look though since all of TWC's Tropic's Forum posts were deleted when they came back online.

I specifcally said that we were going to see an increase in solar activity..flaring... eruptions in the upcoming weeks between June 30th -August 9th.

It occurred. It is much easier to forecast trends like this during the rise towards maximum or slightly thereafter. It's not as hard as it normally should be considering how far we are from Cycle 23's peak and how close we are getting to the next solar minimum.

The sun's magnetic poles are fairly weak at this stage of the cycle compared to the previous few cycles. This is EXACTLY why we are seeing this unusual increased activity. We are seeing stronger flaring...proton events and geomagnetic storming.

I believe this increase has effected the intensity of the hurricane season.



Jim