MODELS hitting Florida Peninsula Twice? NHC too far west???

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Rainband

#21 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:30 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Wait! So who here think its going to come back and hit florida west coast? Tampa may feel strong effects now possibly? Think NHC track will change?

Matt
No idea. Just watching and waiting.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#22 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:35 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Wait! So who here think its going to come back and hit florida west coast? Tampa may feel strong effects now possibly? Think NHC track will change?

Matt


Definately....it'll change at least 10 more times!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:
Contact wxmann_91

#23 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:52 pm

None of the models have it initialized right...

UKMET, GFDL - Too far south and east

BAM models, A98E, LBAR - Too far north and west.

So NHC looks about right. Remember, even if a model is initialized a hundred miles off, that can make a world a difference in five days.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#24 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:54 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:None of the models have it initialized right...

UKMET, GFDL - Too far south and east

BAM models, A98E, LBAR - Too far north and west.

So NHC looks about right. Remember, even if a model is initialized a hundred miles off, that can make a world a difference in five days.


That is why I put my trust in the professionally trained meteorologists at the NHC.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#25 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:03 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:None of the models have it initialized right...

UKMET, GFDL - Too far south and east

BAM models, A98E, LBAR - Too far north and west.

So NHC looks about right. Remember, even if a model is initialized a hundred miles off, that can make a world a difference in five days.


Initazlizations were very near or on top of NHC's positions.

NHC:

AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 76.5W (1)

Initialization of 12 Z GFDL (2)

0 24.5 76.7 320./ 7.0

UKMET initialization (3)

12UTC 24.08.2005 24.5N 76.6W WEAK

18Z position given by NHC (4)

25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST

18Z BAM, NHC98, LBAR initialzations (5)

25.2N 77.0W


(1) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1433.shtml

(2)
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05082417

(3)
http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclo ... wtnt80.txt

(4) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1755.shtml

(5) http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05082418
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#26 Postby Steve H. » Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:31 pm

This system is fairly weak, and the tops are warming. Maybe just a gusty rainstorm at landfall.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 42 guests