MODELS hitting Florida Peninsula Twice? NHC too far west???

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #1 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:41 pm

See the models
Is NHC too far West right now???
See it:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

PTrackerLA · #2 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm

Dang Katrina may only barely make it into the gulf. Amazing since yesterday the models were pointing towards New Orleans.

#3 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:58 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Dang Katrina may only barely make it into the gulf. Amazing since yesterday the models were pointing towards New Orleans.

I wouldn't be sold on that just yet.

#4 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:58 pm

The GFS is apparently onto something, it's the 4th run in a row that had the storm riding the coast, and the rest of the models are following suit. Keep in mind the forecast is still subject to large errors because they still don't quite know exactly WHERE the weakness in the ridge will be.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:00 pm

Models are shifting right. My local discussion was talking about this.

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:02 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:The GFS is apparently onto something, it's the 4th run in a row that had the storm riding the coast, and the rest of the models are following suit.

It's that Viper model people have been talking about. :lol:

Oh but seriously Katrina is not even in the GOM yet. She may not even make it to the Fl. coastline for her first landfall as crazy as the models have shifted the last few runs.

#7 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:03 pm

Rainband wrote:Models are shifting right. My local discussion was talking about this.

I'm not surprised, Rainband, but --- :eek:

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:04 pm

Rainband wrote:Models are shifting right. My local discussion was talking about this.

A majority of them have shifted right. Oh well so much for the GOMers worrying about a possible second landfall. She may only make one as a minimal hurricane. Great news in my opinion!

flair · #9 Postby **flair** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:04 pm

I think the models have initially been overstating the strength of the ridge off the eastern US. The same thing happened with Irene, which was initially supposed to hit NC. The NHC and the local NWS offices were discarding the GFS yesterday (granted, it was going out on a limb), but today the other models have shifted more in line with it. I suspect a rightward adjustment in the forecast track at 5 pm.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:05 pm

Looks like it may be an interesting weekend.

SCHawkFan · #11 Postby **SCHawkFan** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:05 pm

This could be a three landfall storm east Florida, west Flroida and the Carolinas. I don't know if it can stay a TS through all of that but it will be interesting to watch develop.

#12 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:07 pm

Rainband wrote:Looks like it may be an interesting weekend.

Why do you say that?

#13 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:08 pm

On the flip side of the coin, the ECMWF shows a W FL Panhandle landfall...consistent for five runs in row.

I do not buy the GFS solution at all. With the ridge filling in to the north, it will force Katrina to go WNW across FL and into the Gulf. The GFSs upper level forecast do not coincide with its sfc low movement. How do you have a 10-20 kt western steering flow in the upper levels, but hardly move the surface circulation? That just does not add up.

KWT · #14 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:13 pm

Also worth noting that GFS has a nasty habit of under-estimating the ridge to the north,it did the same thing with Frances and tried to re-curve it but it kept heading w/WNW as the ridge built back,I've got a feeling this system will do a similar thing but this time in the gulf.

clfenwi · #15 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:14 pm

flair wrote:I think the models have initially been overstating the strength of the ridge off the eastern US. The same thing happened with Irene, which was initially supposed to hit NC. The NHC and the local NWS offices were discarding the GFS yesterday (granted, it was going out on a limb), but today the other models have shifted more in line with it. I suspect a rightward adjustment in the forecast track at 5 pm.

Only people saying that Irene was going to hit NC were speculators... NHC and associated agencies never forecast a landfall. While there were a couple of models that had runs that brought Irene ashore, the conesuses never did so.

GFDL's 12Z forecast is a leftward shift from its previous run (which was again, a leftward shift). NOGAPS came in slightly right, but still indicates Mobile/Pensacola landfall in its 12Z forecast. With that, CONU is still going to indicate a panhandle landfall.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #16 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:16 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was just pointing these out since I wanted to make the point that
the west coast of Florida will likely feel strong impacts as the
storm passes just to our west/SW.

Rainband · #17 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:16 pm

ALhurricane wrote:On the flip side of the coin, the ECMWF shows a W FL Panhandle landfall...consistent for five runs in row.

I do not buy the GFS solution at all. With the ridge filling in to the north, it will force Katrina to go WNW across FL and into the Gulf. The GFSs upper level forecast do not coincide with its sfc low movement. How do you have a 10-20 kt western steering flow in the upper levels, but hardly move the surface circulation? That just does not add up.

More models are starting to come in line with the gfs..If it was just the GFS I'd be :lol:

gkrangers · #18 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:20 pm

Rainband wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:On the flip side of the coin, the ECMWF shows a W FL Panhandle landfall...consistent for five runs in row.

I do not buy the GFS solution at all. With the ridge filling in to the north, it will force Katrina to go WNW across FL and into the Gulf. The GFSs upper level forecast do not coincide with its sfc low movement. How do you have a 10-20 kt western steering flow in the upper levels, but hardly move the surface circulation? That just does not add up.
More models are starting to come in line with the gfs..If it was just the GFS I'd be

Which ones?

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:23 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Rainband wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:On the flip side of the coin, the ECMWF shows a W FL Panhandle landfall...consistent for five runs in row.

I do not buy the GFS solution at all. With the ridge filling in to the north, it will force Katrina to go WNW across FL and into the Gulf. The GFSs upper level forecast do not coincide with its sfc low movement. How do you have a 10-20 kt western steering flow in the upper levels, but hardly move the surface circulation? That just does not add up.
More models are starting to come in line with the gfs..If it was just the GFS I'd be
Which ones?

the cmc and the UKmet

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

floridahurricaneguy · #20 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:28 pm

Wait! So who here think its going to come back and hit florida west coast? Tampa may feel strong effects now possibly? Think NHC track will change?

Matt

MODELS hitting Florida Peninsula Twice? NHC too far west???

MODELS hitting Florida Peninsula Twice? NHC too far west???

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