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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Remember its a sheard system so t numbers are not the best. This thing has a monster for a LLC. Thats all I'm going to say.
caribepr wrote:8-) I'm liking those numbers! (thanks for making them change it, Luis! - now...can you do something about the quick switch we're having to rain and ugh? I have things to do today!)
Hyperstorm wrote:Invest 97L is finally passing through the 40W longitude line this morning. As I had mentioned a few days ago, this means that the system is now moving over warmer SSTs (82*+), unstable air, and is being less influenced by the Upper-Level Low NE of it.
Satellite images suggest that the VIGOROUS LLC that had been present earlier has become somewhat tighter in nature and is not as broad as it used to be. Usually this indicates that the system is soon to consolidate. I will give it another 24-48 hours before we see it being upgraded a tropical depression as it gradually moves to a better environment for development. That being said, the system is likely producing TS force winds underneath the convection. Since the convection is far removed from the center (mainly due to dry air to its west and moderate wind shear), it is NOT being upgraded at this time.
One possibility, which is not out of the question, is that a MUCH tighter LLC develops just W-NW of the convection. This could happen as the broad LLC contracts somewhat.
The system will likely miss the northern Lesser Antilles, but the longer it takes to fully consolidate, the farther west it will go. Until it is NORTH of the latitude of the islands, DON'T stop watching it!
BTW, the tropical wave which moved off the coast a few days ago, has (for some inexplicable reason) been devoid of convection for a LONG time. I can't find a reason why this is happening since it is located over warm SSTs and the SAL is not impacting it at this time. The wave axis is still there and will have to be monitored because *apparently* conditions are favorable.
Another wave is emerging off the coast, but I won't comment much on it, except for the fact that if it stays far enough south (10-15*N), it will have a better chance of sustaining itself.
cycloneye wrote:A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
11:30 AM TWO.
cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050824 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050824 1800 050825 0600 050825 1800 050826 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 41.3W 18.1N 42.8W 18.9N 44.0W 19.8N 45.1W
BAMM 17.5N 41.3W 18.2N 43.0W 18.9N 44.3W 19.6N 45.4W
A98E 17.5N 41.3W 17.6N 42.8W 17.9N 44.4W 18.4N 45.7W
LBAR 17.5N 41.3W 17.8N 42.8W 18.4N 44.2W 19.2N 45.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050826 1800 050827 1800 050828 1800 050829 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 46.6W 23.9N 49.8W 26.4N 51.6W 29.0N 51.3W
BAMM 20.6N 46.8W 22.9N 49.8W 24.5N 52.2W 25.1N 54.2W
A98E 19.4N 47.1W 21.4N 50.3W 23.9N 53.2W 26.9N 53.9W
LBAR 20.7N 47.6W 25.4N 51.0W 30.2N 51.2W 32.0N 47.7W
SHIP 55KTS 69KTS 72KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 69KTS 72KTS 70KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 41.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 38.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Ummm 30 kts that's interesting.
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Good Morning all you tropic Fans , I have a question I cannot find a model plot for 97l Can someone tell me where to find one? Are they updated for Today Yet? Thank You, Marilyn
I'm liking those numbers! (thanks for making them change it, Luis! - now...can you do something about the quick switch we're having to rain and ugh? I have things to do today!)
