What a huge shift eastward
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What a huge shift eastward
in the forecast path. From the La coast now to Pensacola area AGAIN!!! Seems like that area can't miss any storm.
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Stormcenter
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Re: What a huge shift eastward
gk1 wrote:in the forecast path. From the La coast now to Pensacola area AGAIN!!! Seems like that area can't miss any storm.
I don't consider it a "hugh" shift. I still think the models will do some flip flopping and settle on let's say Mobile, AL. for an VERY early call. But let's ALL remember that Katrina is not even in the GOM yet so things can and probably will change.
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Stormtrack
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Re: What a huge shift eastward
gk1 wrote:in the forecast path. From the La coast now to Pensacola area AGAIN!!! Seems like that area can't miss any storm.
How dry has this area been since the July storms? Would they be able to take moderately heavy rains without serious flooding?
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Stormtrack
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Re: What a huge shift eastward
gk1 wrote:in the forecast path. From the La coast now to Pensacola area AGAIN!!! Seems like that area can't miss any storm.
How dry has this area been since the July storms? Would they be able to take moderately heavy rains without serious flooding?
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>>I don't consider it a "hugh" shift. I still think the models will do some flip flopping and settle on let's say Mobile, AL. for an VERY early call. But let's ALL remember that Katrina is not even in the GOM yet so things can and probably will change.
Huge even
. But if the future path runs fairly close 150nm+/- from the NHC track, that's a Panama City-Biloxi landfall. I think the liklihood of a Mobile-Seaside/Miramar/Laguna hit looks increasingly likely possibly zeroing in on Santa Rosa/Okaloosa/Walton Counties, FL. Obviously Mr. Stewart feels like the western edge of the ridge at 30-31N will erode. Depending on how fast it does, I also wouldn't rule out a weaker system coming up farther east into the Big Bend area.
Should be a few nervous and interesting days for those of you on the FL Gulf Coast who are getting used to frequent landfalls.
Steve
Huge even
. But if the future path runs fairly close 150nm+/- from the NHC track, that's a Panama City-Biloxi landfall. I think the liklihood of a Mobile-Seaside/Miramar/Laguna hit looks increasingly likely possibly zeroing in on Santa Rosa/Okaloosa/Walton Counties, FL. Obviously Mr. Stewart feels like the western edge of the ridge at 30-31N will erode. Depending on how fast it does, I also wouldn't rule out a weaker system coming up farther east into the Big Bend area.
Should be a few nervous and interesting days for those of you on the FL Gulf Coast who are getting used to frequent landfalls.
Steve
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mvtrucking
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Stormcenter
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Steve wrote:>>I don't consider it a "hugh" shift. I still think the models will do some flip flopping and settle on let's say Mobile, AL. for an VERY early call. But let's ALL remember that Katrina is not even in the GOM yet so things can and probably will change.
Huge even
Should be a few nervous and interesting days for those of you on the FL Gulf Coast who are getting used to frequent landfalls.
Steve
I thinK everyone along the Gulf coast should be a little nervous if Katrina make in there and not just Florida. IMO
But at the moment she doesn't look to be more than a cat.1 or 2 storm which is good.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ALhurricane
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For those saying they are not sold on a 1st or 2nd landfall...
Would you please use some facts to back up that statement?
Because to be qutie honest, a 1st landfall is almost assured and a 2nd one is highly likely as well. With the ridge building north of the cyclone, there is no way Katrina rides up the east coast of FL.
Just take a look at the EURO...it gives a reasonable setup. I am not saying this exact track will happen, but it drives the point home.
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif
She will at least for a short time turn west...with a more NW motion likely in the GOM.
Would you please use some facts to back up that statement?
Because to be qutie honest, a 1st landfall is almost assured and a 2nd one is highly likely as well. With the ridge building north of the cyclone, there is no way Katrina rides up the east coast of FL.
Just take a look at the EURO...it gives a reasonable setup. I am not saying this exact track will happen, but it drives the point home.
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif
She will at least for a short time turn west...with a more NW motion likely in the GOM.
Last edited by ALhurricane on Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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