Hurricane Hilary at EPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not true theres a few more that care about tropical cyclones over the Eastern Pacific. In theres even some that care about western Pacific systems. We love all tropical.

Personally I hope Hillary, gets caught up with a nice strong trough which picks it up in moves it northward at 70 mph. Then comes up here as a nice tropical storm!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

22/0000 UTC 17.4N 108.4W T5.0/5.0 HILARY

[clfenwi]

TPPZ1 KGWC 220021
A. HURRICANE HILARY (EIGHT-E)
B. 21/2331Z (70)
C. 17.3N/1
D. 107.8W/6
E. FIVE/GOES10
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS -21/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT OF 3.5. FT BASED ON DT, PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T5.0 (UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION)

MORALES

[wxmann_91]

I'd bet a million dollars that by tomorrow morning, Hillary will be able to see.

[Derek Ortt]

appears that winds are close to 80KT in this depression. No sign of an eye on vis imagery, plus, recon data has indicated that dvorak typically over estimates the intensity of TC's in the EPAC. With this, plus the Air Force's 55KT estimate, it seems likely that the 0Z model initialization is slightly too high

[wxmann_91]

Derek, I believe this thing is ready to rapidly deepen now. Look at its shape on the last visible shot, fist shape apparent now. Won't be surprised to see it become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Hillary at the last visible shot



Irene right before it showed an eye and became a Cat 2

[cycloneye]

832
WTPZ43 KNHC 220300
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005

THE BANDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN A LITTLE THIN THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS
EVENING WITHIN A 100 NM DIAMETER CDO. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE COME UP... WITH 75 KT AND 978 MB FROM CIMSS AT 2130Z... WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... 00Z
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO T5.0...
WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 90 KT. HILARY
IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 29C AND WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS... BUT NOT LESS THAN 26C UNTIL BEYOND 36 HOURS... ALL
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT APPEARS WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR
HILARY TO SOON REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS... WITH A MORE ACCELERATED DECLINE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.

HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/16... AVERAGING OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS THROUGH SOME SMALL WOBBLES. ALL OF THE MODELS NOW
AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WILL ONLY
SERVE TO SLOW HILARY DOWN AND NOT CAUSE IT TO RECURVE. HOWEVER...
THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST
HILARY WILL MOVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS... AND IT ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
MOTION. THIS FORECAST TAKES A MUCH WEAKENED HILARY WESTWARD IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 17.7N 109.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W 30 KT



Hilary is now a cat 2 105 mph.

[P.K.]

WTPZ43 KNHC 220831
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY HAS FORMED A POORLY
DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORMATION HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYE...SO THAT
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT.
THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16. HILARY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL FORM IN
THE RIDGE NORTH OF HILARY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CALIFORNIA IN 24-48 HR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO TURN HILARY TO THE
NORTH...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS
HILARY PASSES SOUTH OF THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR HILARY TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER
THAT...THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION UNDER A RIDGE
WEST OF THE WEAKNESS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A WESTWARD BEND OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE OF HILARY ARE STARTING TO
COOL...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE STILL 28C-29C. THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HR FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS BY 96-120 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 18.1N 110.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 20.2N 116.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.6N 117.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 120.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 126.0W 25 KT

[cycloneye]

789
WTPZ43 KNHC 221440
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT. FOR A
FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEAR EYE BUT THE PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. A MICROWAVE IMAGE AT
8Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL NEARLY ENCIRCLED BY AN OUTER
RAINBAND/EYEWALL. IT IS LIKELY THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY
BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS. BY
36 HOURS HILARY WILL HAVE CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND THE
INEVITABLE DECAY BLENDS THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HILARY
WILL SLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEFLECTED NORTHWARD.
A GRADUAL WESTWARD BEND IS EXPECTED AFTER HILARY PASSES THIS
WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

HILARY HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER BASED ON SHIP REPORTS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 18.6N 112.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

[Jim Cantore]

I just looked at the wind swath and this thing has brought T,S winds to about the coast

massive wind field on this storm

[aveosmth]

Any chance the models could be underestimating the trough and Hilary would take a more northerly route?

[cycloneye]

TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005

HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...PARTICULARLY IN THE
INNER CORE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY
THE MEAN OF THE DVORAK T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DUE TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. HILARY COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS WAS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE
FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY WAS EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO
A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS SLOWING HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. A TURN TO THE WEST IS SHOWN
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A
BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO AND
MORE OR LESS THE SAME THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 18.7N 112.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005

THE WEAKENING TREND NOTED ON THE LAST ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE
CENTRAL CORE OF THE HURRICANE STILL LACKING SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND A TRACK ACROSS COOLER WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF HILARY AND THE
STORM MAY BEGIN ENTRAINING SOME OF THIS AIR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH
STEADIER WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AS HILARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN
WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AS THE GFDL. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY HAS SLOWED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...295/9. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND A
MUCH WEAKER HILARY SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE GIVEN THE
SAME GENERAL REASONING.

BOTH THE 34 KT WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SE
QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP WITH CALL SIGN
MHCO7.

FORECASTER COBB/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.1N 113.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.6N 115.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.2N 116.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 119.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 126.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AN EARLIER 0418Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION REVEALS THAT THE WHITE BAND
HAS NOW ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. NO CHANGES TO
THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRYER AIR
MASS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE
GFDL...WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING IN 96 HOURS...DEGENERATING
FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS HILARY
MOVES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONU
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.4N 114.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005

HILARY CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER WITH A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS AND A BANDING TYPE EYE.
T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OVER COOL WATERS IN
A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.8N 115.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[P.K.]

WTPZ43 KNHC 240833
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005

A 0403Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE
FEATURE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE BAND NOW RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO REVEALS STABLE/DRYER AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48
HOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LATER
IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.1N 117.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.8N 118.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.6N 120.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.3N 121.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 23.8N 123.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 27/0600Z 24.1N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW