Tropical Storm Katrina?

TS Zack · #1 Postby **TS Zack** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:39 am

24/0615 UTC 23.5N 76.0W T2.5/2.5 12

Dvorak Technique says so!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:40 am

No because the recon has not found any higher then 38 mph flight level winds. In earlier they found 40 mph winds...You get the picture.

superfly · #3 Postby **superfly** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:40 am

recon says no

TS Zack · #4 Postby **TS Zack** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:42 am

Reconn just got in. They still have not even got to the NE Quad. Right Now, they are finding winds 30mph outside the convection, if you plot right.

TS Zack · #5 Postby **TS Zack** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:42 am

Ob #19: 06:38:30Z; 23.3°N 74.9°W; PA: 2510 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: S (182°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 50 mph; Radar Altitude: 2615 ft
Ob #20: 06:39:00Z; 23.4°N 74.9°W; PA: 2520 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 50 mph; Radar Altitude: 2625 ft

WOW, what a difference two minutes make! KATRINA!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #6 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:43 am

Holy #$@ They just found 46 to 48 mph flight level winds. Almost strong enough for the upgrade!!!

clfenwi · #7 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:44 am

That's enough for the upgrade as deduction for 925 mb winds is usually no more than 15%.

TS Zack · #8 Postby **TS Zack** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:48 am

Yea, also still never made it in the deep convection to the NE.

#9 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 am

Getting Interesting, the sooner she gets organized the faster she can get ramped up... I agree that this should be upgraded at the 5am as long as sat images and dvorack continue to show improvement and stabilized convection.

Should be an interesting day tomorrow, also considering i have to go up on the second story to put my weather station back up after its cleaning.

yikes! lol
-Eric

gkrangers · #10 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 am

clfenwi wrote:That's enough for the upgrade as deduction for 925 mb winds is usually no more than 15%.

Agree.

Acral · #11 Postby **Acral** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:57 am

She is not looking like a nice girl at all. Showing some attitude.

It's going to be a very long weekend.

#12 Postby **TSmith274** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:02 am

Is it just me, or is she strenghthening a little faster than expected? (of course pending NHC confirmation)

#13 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:04 am

well the water is really warm and it looks like the ULL is pulling east ward a little farther away from "Katrina?"

thought this one would be jose kind of weird saying katrina

clfenwi · #14 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:07 am

TSmith274 wrote:Is it just me, or is she strenghthening a little faster than expected? (of course pending NHC confirmation)

Well, the first forecast did call for 35 knots at 06Z.

However, if it gets further than that between now and 12Z, then yes it is strengthening faster than expected.

JamesFromMaine2 · #15 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:07 am

TSmith274 wrote:Is it just me, or is she strenghthening a little faster than expected? (of course pending NHC confirmation)

Heres what the NHC said at 2am:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

and today is wednesday so I don't know it could be developing a little faster then they thought but its really hard to say!

#16 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:10 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:
TSmith274 wrote:Is it just me, or is she strenghthening a little faster than expected? (of course pending NHC confirmation)

Heres what the NHC said at 2am:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

and today is wednesday so I don't know it could be developing a little faster then they thought but its really hard to say!

to answer your question yes....

if they have found winds in the middle to upper 40 MPH then it would be faster than expected... this is the 11 PM intensity forcast issued by the NHC.

Windspeed · #17 Postby **Windspeed** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:11 am

Yeah, I know it's been a while since I have posted on here. Anyway, Zack, I think the answer to your question is yes.

The 0615 UTC image is out and shows deep convection wrapping over Exuma where the center is fixed. Looks like the mid-to-upper level low is getting further away from TD 12's surface circulation. This is allowing for divergence aloft over the center from the east that has been so condusive for explosive convection on the eastern side for most of yesterday and last night. There is still going to be some hindrance on the system's west side, but signs are that the ULL is weakening and pushing WSW.

#18 Postby **TSmith274** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:13 am

Yeah, southfloridawx2005, I was referring to the 11pm. I just got in, and was a little suprised.

#19 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:14 am

I was also... where you at?

#20 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:15 am

TSmith274 wrote:Yeah, southfloridawx2005, I was referring to the 11pm. I just got in, and was a little suprised.

yeah I was suprised also.... Where are you at?

Tropical Storm Katrina?

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