What's East of PR

[boca]

Looks kike something else is developing East of Puerto Rico.

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[caribepr]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1138 PM AST Tuesday Aug 23 2005


Update...the 00z sounding came in with more moisture than any of
the previous 6 soundings with 2.36 inches of precipitable water and
a lifted index of minus 6.4. Interestingly the surface layer from
which the lifted index was computed was not the most unstable...but
a layer about 150 feet above the surface had a better dewpoint and
temperature yielding a lifted index of minus 9. Also winds were
easterly up through 20 thousand feet. With winds over Saint Marten
being southeast this would put the tropical wave between the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands. Latest models show the best
relative humidity at 850 mb focused over the U.S. Virgin Islands at
06z...and over east central Puerto Rico at 12z. Several models show
very good moisture lingering until 18z. This would certainly be long
enough to trigger strong thunderstorms over Puerto Rico during the
afternoon Wednesday. In addition the GFS shows a Theta-E Ridge
Crossing at roughly the same hours. Would expect activity to
increase over the local area through about 14z and cannot rule out
some thunderstorms forming a line along the lines of wind flow and
leaving some considerable amounts of rain in local areas...mainly
between 10 and 14z. This may not be enough to trigger flash flooding
but should cause some urban and small stream flooding. Some of this
may effect the San Juan metropolitan area depending on how winds align
behind the wave. Temperatures tomorrow should be moderate in most
areas...although southeast winds over the San Juan metropolitan area and
the adjacent coastal plains should cause maximum temperatures to
rise into the lower 90s on Wednesday...where on Tuesday they could
only reach the upper 80s.

[ts_kakolina]

http://www.stormcarib.com/goes.htm

Interesting and impressive thunderstorm activity over the Lesser Antilles and approaching Puerto Rico from the SE. We better watch this one.

[ts_kakolina]

Code: Select all

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 AM AST WED AUG 24 2005

PRZ001-250115-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF...BAYAMON...CAROLINA...CATANO...
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO ALTO
245 AM AST WED AUG 24 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS 91 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 81 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 69 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

[caribepr]

Looks like a bunch of friends of mine will NOT be boating over to St. Thomas today...




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
522 am AST Wednesday Aug 24 2005


Discussion...a tropical wave has moved into the local area this
morning with associated numerous showers and thunderstorms more
noticeable over the Caribbean and part of the Atlantic waters. Last
night sounding showed a very moist and unstable local airmass and
forecast sounding from model guidance suggest a continuation of this
unstable weather pattern today. As far as the model guidance suggest
there is a good potential for showers and thunderstorms today with
the eastern and interior sections of Puerto Rico having the higher
chances for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms activity. Winds are
forecast to be from the southeast such that the San Juan
metropolitan area also have a very good chance to receive some
rainfall and thunderstorms.

Since last few days several areas of Puerto Rico have received
plenty of rainfall the likelihood for flooding become higher.
Associated to this there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the
eastern half of Puerto Rico until 100 PM this afternoon.

[ts_kakolina]

Code: Select all

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED AUG 24 2005

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-251030-
600 AM AST WED AUG 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY...AND BRING AN
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALONG WITH IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ALONG
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS FLOWING WATER THROUGH
GUTS. IN THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES...CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

[caribepr]

On Culebra, at the moment, the sky has lightened up a lot (totally overcast but not that ominous dark of before), wind gone down and it looks like it could be a better day than thought earlier. But...it still IS early.