Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bjackrian]

The latest QuickSCAT seems to shows the problem fairly well:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

There is a beautiful circulation with some uncontaminated 25 kt wind estimates to the northeast of the center, but nothing over 10 kt on the southwest side. Like people are saying, it'll probably fill in if/when it starts to move north.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow that is one heck of a strong LLC. The convection is moving closer to the LLC. It is starting to move into a favable enviroment by shear maps. I expect a hurricane out of this before its all said in done.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050824 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050824 0000 050824 1200 050825 0000 050825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 39.1W 16.8N 41.1W 17.3N 42.6W 17.8N 43.7W
BAMM 16.4N 39.1W 17.0N 41.2W 17.6N 42.7W 18.2N 43.8W
A98E 16.4N 39.1W 16.3N 41.3W 16.5N 43.5W 16.6N 45.2W
LBAR 16.4N 39.1W 16.7N 41.4W 17.1N 43.6W 17.5N 45.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050826 0000 050827 0000 050828 0000 050829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 44.6W 22.1N 46.9W 26.7N 48.8W 30.1N 47.0W
BAMM 19.0N 44.6W 22.1N 47.0W 26.4N 49.1W 29.3N 47.7W
A98E 16.6N 46.5W 18.5N 49.3W 21.3N 51.9W 25.3N 53.8W
LBAR 18.0N 47.8W 20.9N 52.1W 25.5N 54.7W 30.5N 53.8W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 76KTS 78KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 76KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 39.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this system where to get close to 12, this would eat 12 for breakfast. Of course thats not going to happen. But thats what would happen.


Here is my thinking...

The system moves into a more favable enviroment over the next 24 to 36 hours. Which which this becomes a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane around 18/48. It could become a hurricane if the upper level enviroment is favable enough. This sysem could be the system to watch.

[clfenwi]

Nice bump in SSTs for the system once it gets past 40 and 45° West.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif

However, it continues to be hemmed in by dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... /WV/20.jpg

[bvigal]

...However, it continues to be hemmed in by dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... /WV/20.jpg

Oh my goodness, look at all that dry air. Can't believe it looks as good as it does!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With that being said I can't believe we have 12 depressions so far this season. The whole Eastern third of the Atlantic is unfavable.

[cjrciadt]

With that being said I can't believe we have 12 depressions so far this season. The whole Eastern third of the Atlantic is unfavable.

Considering that the Eastern Atlantic is where most of the systems formed in 95.http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1995.asp
Imagine if the East Atlantic improves in Sept.????

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this year wents to beat 33 its going to have to become some what more favable. I'm not seeing it...

[HURAKAN]

If this year wents to beat 33 its going to have to become some what more favable. I'm not seeing it...

Lets not rush it and wait for September!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is deeping fast it is starting to show a ring of clouds around it. In the deep convection trying to cover it. This shear has to be at least 30 knots. What on earth don't tell me I'm watching another tropical depression 10. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THE AMOUNT OF ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


The above from the 10:30 PM TWO.

[clfenwi]

The convection firing up along 20° North is somewhat encouraging.

Also, it looks like that convection has caught up to the eastern edge of the circulation, with possibly a small flare-up along the northern edge of the center. Good stuff.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on tropical storm. This might be our 11th if it can beat t.d 12. Come baby you deserve it.

[sma10]

If this year wents to beat 33 its going to have to become some what more favable. I'm not seeing it...

'favable?'

[gkrangers]

Come baby you deserve it.

Ahahahahhhahaaahaahahahahhaahah dirty dirty dirty thoughts...

[sma10]

Come baby you deserve it.

Who exactly are you talking to, Matt?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was talking about 97L

[clfenwi]

24/0615 UTC 16.4N 39.9W T1.5/1.5 97 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember its a sheard system so t numbers are not the best. This thing has a monster for a LLC. Thats all I'm going to say.