First real deepening.....
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Eyes2theSkies
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Jim Cantore
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
What are you looking at? This thing is a weak depression. Disorganized with no central core at all. Take a look at 97L if you went to see a LLC.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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dixiebreeze
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Tropical depression to hit S. Florida by Thursday; may be Katrina
Associated Press
Posted August 23 2005, 9:41 PM EDT
A tropical depression that flared up in the Bahamas on Tuesday may hit Florida as early as Thursday as a named tropical storm, forecasters said.
The storm would be named Katrina. It appeared to be aiming for a passage across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
At 8 p.m. the center of the tropical depression No. 12 was about 160 miles southeast of Nassau, the Bahamas, with maximum winds of near 35 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
Forecasters said some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and the depression could become Katrina by Wednesday, which is the eve of 13th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. The threshold to become a tropical storm is 39 mph and for a hurricane it is 74 mph or stronger.
The depression was moving erratically toward the west-northwest at 7 mph, and was expected to stay on that same course and speed through Wednesday afternoon.
Forecasters predicted that at noon Thursday the depression's very broad forecast track puts the storm less than 100 miles off the coast of Miami Beach on a northwest course that would take it near Fort Lauderdale by Friday.
The government of the Bahamas issued a tropical storm warning for the central and northwest Bahamas, while a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be issued for parts of South Florida later Tuesday. Hurricane Andrew caused heavy damage in the Bahamas on Aug. 23 before hitting south of Miami the next day, Mon., Aug. 24, 1992, them moving across the gulf and hitting Louisiana.
Associated Press
Posted August 23 2005, 9:41 PM EDT
A tropical depression that flared up in the Bahamas on Tuesday may hit Florida as early as Thursday as a named tropical storm, forecasters said.
The storm would be named Katrina. It appeared to be aiming for a passage across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
At 8 p.m. the center of the tropical depression No. 12 was about 160 miles southeast of Nassau, the Bahamas, with maximum winds of near 35 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
Forecasters said some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and the depression could become Katrina by Wednesday, which is the eve of 13th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. The threshold to become a tropical storm is 39 mph and for a hurricane it is 74 mph or stronger.
The depression was moving erratically toward the west-northwest at 7 mph, and was expected to stay on that same course and speed through Wednesday afternoon.
Forecasters predicted that at noon Thursday the depression's very broad forecast track puts the storm less than 100 miles off the coast of Miami Beach on a northwest course that would take it near Fort Lauderdale by Friday.
The government of the Bahamas issued a tropical storm warning for the central and northwest Bahamas, while a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be issued for parts of South Florida later Tuesday. Hurricane Andrew caused heavy damage in the Bahamas on Aug. 23 before hitting south of Miami the next day, Mon., Aug. 24, 1992, them moving across the gulf and hitting Louisiana.
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Eyes2theSkies wrote:To my amateur eyes it is starting to look better and better. Reason being the convection is now where it belongs.
Yes...agreed. Convection was all spread out before...now it has become concentrated near the low center...a tell tale sign that the inflow is consolidating.
Tropical systems tend to not want competition for upward lift...and that's what all of that stuff to the north and south of the system was doing today...competing.
Now that the center is better defined...less competition around the center means a stronger center.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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jax
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jax
jax wrote:boca_chris wrote:'s headed through the Florida straights
GOMers won't have it's stregthening slowed
by the panensula, i'm afraid
No way that will happen in my opinion...
models are headed in that direction...
with the exception of the BAMs, none are headed that direction. In fact all of the others are a bit farther north/east.
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jax
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JamesFromMaine2
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so let me get this straight all you guys don't think it will go into the GOM when the NHC 11pm forcast track has it going into the GOM? They aren't always perfect but this season they have been doing pretty good this year with the forcast tracks! I my self think it will go into the GOM but from there I have no clue!
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JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so let me get this straight all you guys don't think it will go into the GOM when the NHC 11pm forcast track has it going into the GOM? They aren't always perfect but this season they have been doing pretty good this year with the forcast tracks! I my self think it will go into the GOM but from there I have no clue!
No, he is talking about the storm going between FL and Cuba (FL straits) straight into the Gulf, not off the east coast of FL.
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