Maybe we should expect.....

[dixiebreeze]

a TS of 'Cane of more intensity than is currently being projected --- just MHO.

Here is an excerpt from the afternoon Ruskin (Tampa Bay) NWS forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida:

"Long term (thurs night- tue)...tropical disturbance over the
southern Bahamas is looking better organized in the latest satellite
imagery data. GFS 06z run is also showing a closed low at the
surface by Friday....so does European model (ecmwf) and ETA model. If this trend
continues...it is obvious the weekend forecast philosophy will
change. For now the forecast will not be altered significantly and
will wait for upcoming model runs and NHC analysis to decide if
major changes are required on the grids. Biggest issue now with the
grids are winds during the weekend. If the tropical wave indeed
becomes a closed low then intensity is a big concern. The stronger
the wind circulation of the system over Florida the more difficult
will be for afternoon sea breezes to form. Independently of the
final solution...it is clear that overall moisture and instability
will increase starting Thursday evening. For now will keep current
forecast philosophy of an active weekend with most shower and
thunderstorm activity between Friday and Saturday...and gradually
decreasing next week. Probability of precipitation were increased to 60% on Friday for the
southern half of the County Warning Area but it may be extended to the entire area
if the low intensifies...which will also increase probability of precipitation for Saturday
and Sunday."

[gkrangers]

Honestly..the NHC, if anything, would probably over forecast the intensity with this system.

They would rather be too high, than too low iwth it this close to Florida.

Probably get better intensity estimates once the storm has developed a core.