TD #12 looks to impact S. Fl.

[Vortex]

Much of the guidance supports a slow track towards southern florida over the next 2-4 days. Here's the 12z GFS and NAM.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Frank2]

I just don't agree - we have a decent easterly wind here in Broward today (unlike many days this summer), so I'd hope that this would mean TD12 will be moving westward fairly quickly, and, since the center is already southeast of Andros Island by no more than 12 hours or so, it is already in fairly close proximity to the Florida coast.

Frank

[jax]

Much of the guidance supports a slow track towards southern florida over the next 2-4 days. Here's the 12z GFS and NAM.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

looks like the central GOM is in MUCH more danger of a hard hit...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I just don't agree - we have a decent easterly wind here in Broward today (unlike many days this summer), so I'd hope that this would mean TD12 will be moving westward fairly quickly, and, since the center is already southeast of Andros Island by no more than 12 hours or so, it is already in fairly close proximity to the Florida coast.

Frank

That certainly isn't what the models are depicting. They are all in almost perfect agreement on a very slow speed with almost a stall at 72 hours and all in the South Florida vicinity. Also, this is what the models have been showing for 3 days now.

[Frank2]

Here is the current local discussion from the Miami NWSFO - completely different in their analysis of the system (referring to it as more of a rain event than anything else), and the forecaster also references the strong easterly flow mentioned in my earlier post.

Click on http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/text.php?si ... &version=0 to view.

[deltadog03]

i agree FRANK, I don't know how far up FL it will get...there is a very pronounced EASTerly flow that both you and nws mentioned. the ridge is stacked both LL and UL...to me i would think this has a better shot at staying near the keys...imo...forecast out soon

[Praxus]

Well well...A Ft.Lauderdale / Miami hit and then up to hurricane strength
in the gulf for another, much worse hit somewhere on the guld coast.
Yikes Hopefully it won't hit south florida as a cane.

[vbhoutex]

That was the 2 pm discussion. I find it odd they were still talking about a wave and lp forming when it was very obvious at that time that there was more out there. Current guess is a strong TS hitting S FL somewhere near Miami or South by Friday.

[Rainband]

That was the 2 pm discussion. I find it odd they were still talking about a wave and lp forming when it was very obvious at that time that there was more out there. Current guess is a strong TS hitting S FL somewhere near Miami or South by Friday.

Until we have a good fix on the center it's a crapshoot. Local Met said the forecast will likely speed up too. At this point the cone of error goes all the way to Georgia back down to Cuba. Watch and wait.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

That was the 2 pm discussion. I find it odd they were still talking about a wave and lp forming when it was very obvious at that time that there was more out there. Current guess is a strong TS hitting S FL somewhere near Miami or South by Friday.

Until we have a good fix on the center it's a crapshoot. Local Met said the forecast will likely speed up too. At this point the cone of error goes all the way to Georgia back down to Cuba. Watch and wait.

Two things make me think this forecast isn't such a crapshoot. First, the midels have been in excellent agreement for at least three days that a low would close off and end up close to SOFLA. Second, the NHC sounded very confident in the track in their discussion.

[Sanibel]

Storm has look of potential fast-former.

Local weatherman cone anywhere from Havana to Jacksonville.

Local says expect to slow down before Florida.

- That's over the Gulf Stream folks...

[CaneCurious]

Sanibel, does that equal quick intensification?

[jlauderdal]

I just don't agree - we have a decent easterly wind here in Broward today (unlike many days this summer), so I'd hope that this would mean TD12 will be moving westward fairly quickly, and, since the center is already southeast of Andros Island by no more than 12 hours or so, it is already in fairly close proximity to the Florida coast.

Frank

frank,
just because its a quick flow now doesn't mean it will be down the road. Weakness developing in the ridge and thus a path towrds us then the ridge builds again and drives it to the gulf, very straight forward stuff here. Intensity is a completely different animal though, lets hope this thing stays weak the next 24-36 so it can;t get cranking over the warm waters of the bahamas.

[Sanibel]

Possibly. I'm being very careful because I've made some mistakes today due to being busy away from the computer.

I've just been set back again because a new center could be forming revealing itself further south.


This system does conform to potential sleeper - yes.