HPC thinks TD#12 is a possible threat to CNTRL/ESTN GOM

[Stormcenter]

This is excerpts from this (8-223-05) afternoons NWS HPC Extended Weather discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2005 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2005

FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...

TO THE SOUTH OF THESE HIGHER LAT ANOMALIES...MID LEVEL HTS ARE
FCST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN A FLAT RIDGE ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE
NATION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF WEAKENESS IN
IT WL BE CRUCIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER
INVOF THE BAHAMAS THAT MAY AFFECT FL AND THE NERN AND NCNTRL GULF
THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS
LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS
IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN
ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE
FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT
TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE
LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL
FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS
POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A
THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
STORMS POTENTIAL.

[dixiebreeze]

I think once Katrina revs up she will develop quickly into a major player. Operative word is "think."

[alicia-w]

great. well, it gives us a chance to clean our house in the TN mtns.....

[dhweather]

All those folks that have left their shutters up will feel brilliant!

[shaggy]

best case scenario is that the weakness in the ridge is set up so that the system goes up the pennisula and doesn't stay over water.

Wonder how much credit will be given to the GFS with its east coast florida then east coast runner solutions?

[Rainband]

:eek: I think once Katrina revs up she will develop quickly into a major player. Operative word is "think."

hmmm it depends on timing but the CMC may end up being right??

[WeatherEmperor]

best case scenario is that the weakness in the ridge is set up so that the system goes up the pennisula and doesn't stay over water.

Wonder how much credit will be given to the GFS with its east coast florida then east coast runner solutions?

wow no way. thats a worst case scenario for FL. Think of all the heavy heavy heavy amounts of rain its then gonna dump all over the FL peninsula if it runs up that way. that is far from the best case scenario, especially for FL.

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

ok some heavy rain from a depression or the chance that she feeds on the warm waters of the gulf and blows up into a cat 3 or something off the wall?Think best case is for it to saty inland or close to shore so that development is impeded.

[WeatherEmperor]

ok some heavy rain from a depression or the chance that she feeds on the warm waters of the gulf and blows up into a cat 3 or something off the wall?Think best case is for it to saty inland or close to shore so that development is impeded.

Remember Tropical Storm Allison in 2001? Think thats all I will say

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

not saying TD 12 couldn't do what Allison did but theres a reason why allison was the costliest TS in history and she was a rare bird and by no way means that TD 12 is capable of a simliar act.

[BamaMan]

[LAwxrgal]

ok some heavy rain from a depression or the chance that she feeds on the warm waters of the gulf and blows up into a cat 3 or something off the wall?Think best case is for it to saty inland or close to shore so that development is impeded.

Remember Tropical Storm Allison in 2001? Think thats all I will say

<RICKY>

I wouldn't want any part of anything resembling Allison, no way, no how... she's the cause I moved out of my apartment. There was so much water it was unrepairable.

[skysummit]

ok some heavy rain from a depression or the chance that she feeds on the warm waters of the gulf and blows up into a cat 3 or something off the wall?Think best case is for it to saty inland or close to shore so that development is impeded.

Remember Tropical Storm Allison in 2001? Think thats all I will say

<RICKY>

I wouldn't want any part of anything resembling Allison, no way, no how... she's the cause I moved out of my apartment. There was so much water it was unrepairable.

Same here....lots and lots of flooding. That was pretty amazing for just a Tropical Storm.

[hicksta]

Way to early to call where it will land. Especially when most models show a W movement in the gulf and not a NW....

[jamima]

Are you guys not thinking that this could be a hurricane? It has the time and everything else it needs to become one. Look how fast charley intensified!

[Dean4Storms]

Are you guys not thinking that this could be a hurricane? It has the time and everything else it needs to become one. Look how fast charley intensified!

Sure do, especially once it gets into the Gulf. Don't see it at this point becoming a hurricane before it reaches south Florida but it could be real close. Alot will depend on the ULL to its north and how much distance it puts between itself and TD12.

[Scorpion]

Apparently many believe that this could reach hurricane strength before hitting Florida which is entirely possible.

[Opal storm]

I know it's a little soon but as of now this does not look good for Ivan/Dennis devastated areas.

[Ivanhater]

this is starting to get very old

[shaggy]

i hate that the panhandle has taken the beatin that it has but i remember so many people I disagree with all wanting storms and now they have them better them than me i guess