Is the NAM/ETA worth watching?

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hurricanetrack
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Is the NAM/ETA worth watching?

#1 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:39 pm

Ok- here is one that I don't know the answer to. In regards to tropical activity, is the former ETA- now NAM- worth watching as a model to predict either cyclogenesis or future track and strength of existing system?

Reason being:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084m.gif
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#2 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:41 pm

hey guys from what I gather from discussions today...NO...somewhere it said that the NAM was waaay underdoing the ridge...so, I think no at this point. But, 1 note that is interesting...its shifted west tonight...so maybe its trying...
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gkrangers

#3 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:41 pm

The tropics isn't really the NAMs forte....

The Euro does something similar, taking the system north to the SE FL coast...then moving it west/wsw into the GOM...probably takes it towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge originally....and eventually gets directed back westward by the ridge reconfiguring itself.
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:45 pm

Look at the dynamic outflow that shows
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#5 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:58 am

in general, nam/eta is normally at its best closest to north america. that said, with the current heights north and west of the disturbance, the ridge should hold for at least 48 hours and to move the disturbance to at least 83 west in the general vicinity of 24 north...IMHO.....rich
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#6 Postby Derecho » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:44 am

In general it should be ignored for all tropical purposes (as should the Canadian.)

The tracks for Dennis and Emily from the ETA were an absolute joke, and typical of its performance.
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#7 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:46 am

HPC's remarks on the 00Z runs:

...FEATURE INITIALLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS...

CONSIDERING THAT THE LATEST TPC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SUGGESTS
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE GFS SOLN
APPEARS TOO WEAK. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE
AND TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 3... WITH THE CANADIAN GLBL
POSSIBLY OVERDONE AS WELL. NAM FCSTS FROM RECENT DAYS HAVE
TYPICALLY BEEN THE RIGHT HAND OUTLIER WITH LATER RUNS TRENDING
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS... AND THE CANADIAN GLBL HAS TYPICALLY
HAD A BIAS TOWARD OVERDEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS... MAKING BOTH
OF THOSE SOLNS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. A COMPROMISE IN
STRENGTH/POSN SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. CONSULT LATEST TPC
DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFO ON THIS FEATURE.
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