Code: Select all
A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N71W AND IS MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS
COLLOCATED BENEATH A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 26N71W WHICH
ALSO HAPPENS TO BE MOVING WWD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED PRIMARILY E OF THE SURFACE TROF
FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 67W-74W...OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW...NEITHER THE DEEP-LAYERED NOR MID-LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR APPEARS THAT DETRIMENTAL. TWO MODELS...THE GFS AND
ECMWF...HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW FROM THIS TROF NEAR
CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.Code: Select all
WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA NEWD OFF THE OUTER BANKS
OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH BROAD NE/E FLOW EXTENDING FROM N OF THE
BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA. A FAIRLY SIZEABLE UPPER LOW IS TUMBLING WWD
TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W AND IS KICKING UP CONVECTION TO
ITS E NEAR A SFC TROF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS EWD PAST THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 67W-81W. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NW TOWARDS FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE
IN SPECIAL FEATURES.[Edited to add West Atlantic section regarding Bahamas weather]