TWD....3 Special Features

[KatDaddy]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JOSE CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 95.7W...OR 40 NM NE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...AT 23/0000 UTC MOVING W 6 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. JOSE HAS A FAIRLY SMALL CIRCULATION HIGHLIGHTED BY
SEVERAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 40 NM OF THE CENTER...
AND THEN A BAND OF TSTMS WHICH WRAPS AROUND THE W AND N SIDES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-99W.
MEXICAN RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO...NEAR VERACRUZ...SHOWS A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAINS ALREADY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MOVING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. JOSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N71W AND IS MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS
COLLOCATED BENEATH A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 26N71W WHICH
ALSO HAPPENS TO BE MOVING WWD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED PRIMARILY E OF THE SURFACE TROF
FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 67W-74W...OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW...NEITHER THE DEEP-LAYERED NOR MID-LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR APPEARS THAT DETRIMENTAL. TWO MODELS...THE GFS AND
ECMWF...HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW FROM THIS TROF NEAR
CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 420 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 16N33W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE LOCATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
SINCE YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION APPEARS ELONGATED
ALONG 19N30W TO 16N37W. CONVECTION IS QUITE MEAGER SINCE THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A STABLE DRY LAYER N OF 14N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 29W-37W WHERE
MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED UP THE E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS
OVER WATERS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.