Here is my take for the record, and for the next 36 hours:
I think that just like Irene, this system will battle dry ( did not say SAL
) air as it moves across the Atlantic. The reason Irene is a decent analog is that both waves started strong and have a large area LLC. This will allow the LLC to survive through shear and dry air. Furthermore, it will likely stay underdeveloped and thus the models will not accurately predict the westward movement caused by low level westerly flow.
Since the pattern and climo are just evolving from pattern we saw in July, i.e. SAL, dry air and LLC's all over the place, I have low confidence in predicting strength at this phase other than if it gets further N it dissipates and if it stays W it holds and later strengthens. The 40W longitude seems about right as a "gate" that if the overall relative motion of W continues past 40W, it will be much more likely to strengthen. As it strengthens it will begin to be influenced by the mid-upper steering levels and Atlantic ridging and the models should be fairly useful in determining whether this re-curves.
In summary, my best guess is that it will survive past 40W at times looking dis-organized then stronger and back again. 36 hours is all it should take to determine the fate. Since nobody likes a 50'50 call ( no commitment) I'll say 55/45 this is TS on or about 36 hours.
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