If system in Bahamas develops what number will be? 10 or 12?

[cycloneye]

This is a good question the resident pro mets can chime in to help the members understand what number and why will this disturbance may get if it forms into a TD.Will NHC designate it as #10 again or they will go with #12?

My opinion is that it will be TD #10 as they are going with continuity.

[HURAKAN]

Agree. I don't like to waste numbers!!!!

[Buck]

10 would be good for continuity's sake... but if the circulation actually dissipated, it would also make sense to begin with a whole new system.

[johngaltfla]

Our local mets indicated they think it will probably redevelop either before it crosses Florida or in the Eastern Gulf. Either way it would be #10 again they said. I guess that's because they'll probably have 12, 13, and 14 by early next week if the MJO is any indicator. I guess the dry air is finally starting to subside in the Atlantic....

[WeatherEmperor]

and we all know how much the NHC loves continuity.

<RICKY>

[ameriwx2003]

I am sure when the Bahama system developes some heated debate will occur at TPC.. In fact , some debating may have been going on.. in the TWO they seem unsure about this issue saying it is possibly associated with the remnants of t.d 10:):).. Let the arguing begin:):)
Here is an excerpt from the LATEST TWO

"DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN... AND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
"

[Stratosphere747]

Actually Matt, this would not be TD #10 if
it develops. The remnant swirl of TD 10 is
dissipated, last seen over eastern Cuba late
Saturday. This disturbance is the wave that
was trailing TD #10. BTW look at the recon
plan of the day for August 23. It shows the
initial invest as 01GGA and then subsequent
tasking is shown as Cyclone 0212A. (this would
mean the second flight into the 12th cyclone).
Therefore, if it developed it would be TD #12 not 10.
If they considered it the same system it would be
numbered Invest 02FFA (since they investigated
once previously on August 18). Just my .02

Good explantion from djones from the TD12 forming? thread...

[cycloneye]

I am sure when the Bahama system developes some heated debate will occur at TPC.. In fact , some debating may have been going on.. in the TWO they seem unsure about this issue saying it is possibly associated with the remnants of t.d 10:):).. Let the arguing begin:):)
Here is an excerpt from the LATEST TWO

"DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN... AND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
"

Yes agree about them to debate among themselves about this.

[dhweather]

Our local mets indicated they think it will probably redevelop either before it crosses Florida or in the Eastern Gulf. Either way it would be #10 again they said. I guess that's because they'll probably have 12, 13, and 14 by early next week if the MJO is any indicator. I guess the dry air is finally starting to subside in the Atlantic....

I don't know about that - 97L was ANNHILATED by the dry air.

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg">

[Astro_man92]

10 would be good for continuity's sake... but if the circulation actually dissipated, it would also make sense to begin with a whole new system.

Agreed

[djones65]

I personally believe that the circulation associated with TD #10 has dissipated and that this trough is a separate entity. I believe a weak low level swirl noted late on Saturday afternoon over eastern Cuba was the remnant of TD #10. The NHC tropical weather discussion on Saturday evening discussed this feature and labeled it the remnant of TD10. The new disturbance near the Turks and Caicos islands is the tropical wave that was trailing TD10. Therefore this system will likely (if it ever develops which is a big if) become TD #12.
To further support this assertion is the reconnaissance plan of the day for tomorrow's tasking. The mission label is "01GGA" which implies the first invest. TD10 was investigated on Thursday 18 August under the header 01FFA. In addition, the subsequent tasking for tomorrow is labeled Cyclone 0212A which indicates the planned second flight into the 12th tropical cyclone. I believe if they intended to continue to call it TD10 they would have the invest labeled 02FFA and the subsequent tasking as 0310A.
As Donald Sutherland mentioned to me in another thread he believes a case can be made that the low level swirl over eastern Cuba 48 hours ago may have been a mid level circulation I personally don't agree since the disturbance is under northwesterly upper shear, any middle level circulation would have been driven to the east and southeast of the surface circulation. Therefore in my opinion the swirl noted over Cuba during the weekend was the dissipating remnants of TD 10 and this present disturbance originated from a separate surface wave. I know that the NHC model guidance still refers this as Tropical Depression Ten but I believe the most telling evidence of its future classification is from the recon plan.

[x-y-no]

If this develops, it definitely ought to be 12. There's even less justification for calling it TD10 than there was for resurrecting Ivan last year.

[cycloneye]

I personally believe that the circulation associated with TD #10 has dissipated and that this trough is a separate entity. I believe a weak low level swirl noted late on Saturday afternoon over eastern Cuba was the remnant of TD #10. The NHC tropical weather discussion on Saturday evening discussed this feature and labeled it the remnant of TD10. The new disturbance near the Turks and Caicos islands is the tropical wave that was trailing TD10. Therefore this system will likely (if it ever develops which is a big if) become TD #12.
To further support this assertion is the reconnaissance plan of the day for tomorrow's tasking. The mission label is "01GGA" which implies the first invest. TD10 was investigated on Thursday 18 August under the header 01FFA. In addition, the subsequent tasking for tomorrow is labeled Cyclone 0212A which indicates the planned second flight into the 12th tropical cyclone. I believe if they intended to continue to call it TD10 they would have the invest labeled 02FFA and the subsequent tasking as 0310A.
As Donald Sutherland mentioned to me in another thread he believes a case can be made that the low level swirl over eastern Cuba 48 hours ago may have been a mid level circulation I personally don't agree since the disturbance is under northwesterly upper shear, any middle level circulation would have been driven to the east and southeast of the surface circulation. Therefore in my opinion the swirl noted over Cuba during the weekend was the dissipating remnants of TD 10 and this present disturbance originated from a separate surface wave. I know that the NHC model guidance still refers this as Tropical Depression Ten but I believe the most telling evidence of its future classification is from the recon plan.

I think you have a valid point with that.I didn't noticed it when I saw the plan of the day earlier today.

[clfenwi]

There is probably the same sort of battle royale going on at NHC that happened during the Ivan/Ivan controversy last year.

I would argue that it should be a new number as all hints of the circulation associated with TD 10 were wiped out.

However, a new file has not been opened in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system. The model forecasts for the activity in the Bahamas area are being filed under AL10.

[HURAKAN]

By the way, all tropical systems that are downgraded to tropical waves is because they have lost their surface circulation. But, most of these system when they came back they were given the same number. Example, TD 12 in 2000, dissipated before affecting the Leeward Islands and then came back with the same number south of Cuba later becoming TS Helene.

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL just issued again the 10L Ten header for that system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2005 keeps its self ahead of 1995. We got intill 11am 28th of August intill the K storm is threaten.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

NRL just issued again the 10L Ten header for that system.

does this mean td # 10? or what? Sorry

[deltadog03]

should be TD12

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Now the main site of NRL has it again as 10L Noname.