Add the NWS N.O.to list of those jumping on the bandwagon

[Stormcenter]

This is from the afternoon NWS N.O.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH 2.0 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WARMING INTO THE MID 90S. WHAT WE LACK IS A SHORT WAVE
TO INCITE CONVECTION. A WEA VORTICITY TROUGH LIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LA COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST LA. THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL RETARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OFF THE COAST INTERACT WITH
WEAK LAKE WIND BOUNDARIES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THINGS GET BETTER FOR TUESDAY...ETA AND AVN MODELS
STRONGLY DISAGREE ON THE THREATR OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH THE
ETA MUCH DRIER THAN THE AVN/GFS. WILL MAKE A COMPROMISE AND KEEP
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU FRIDAY...CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LIMITED. NEXT CHANCE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
ENTERING THE GULF IS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVN MODEL SHOWS THE REMANANTS
OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO EAST
FLORIDA FRIDAY. SURFACE BASED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MIDDLE GULD SUNDAY...28 AUG. AVN
SHOWS THE TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE TOWARDS
LA ON MONDAY. WILL AHVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS FLIP-FLOP ON
THIS TRACK.

[LaBreeze]

Hmmmm! That's interesting - guess we'll have to keep an eye on this possible development.

[jasons2k]

Key is the very last sentence of disc. - esp with it being a week+ away....

[BamaMan]

Mobile - NWS

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IN
THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FAME...THEN MEANDERING SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

[Rainband]

everyone of the NWS offices in Florida and the GOM states is watching carefully.

[N2Storms]

LONG [b][b]TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GFS BRINGS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE (REMNANTS OF TD 10) TO SOUTH FL
FRIDAY...THEN DRIFTS IT W-NW TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX ON
SATURDAY. A BIT TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS & WILL NEED MORE RUNS TO
GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE. [b][/b][/b][/b]

[tracyswfla]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005


LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MON)...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE CENTRAL GULF AREA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SAG INTO
THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS OF FL...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
10 WILL ALSO REACH FL FROM THE SOUTH...PROBABLY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE...BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE IN BRINGING THE WAVE
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND MOVING IT OUT INTO THE GULF BY
SUNDAY. ETA KEEPS INTENSIFYING THE WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
MOVING IT EAST OF FL AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN US COAST. GFS
SOLUTION OF A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME SINCE ETA HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST WEEK.

AGAIN...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVERY DAY WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES FORMING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WHICH WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.
AT THIS TIME POPS WILL REMAIN AT 50% EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR THE WEEKEND IF
THE EXPECTED SCENARIO MATERIALIZES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.