Tropical Storm Jose Recon Reports

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:45 am

I dont have the official information yet about this afternoon mission being cancelled so I am making this sticky thread.I believe they will go but if any information regarding a no go comes then this thread will be unsticked.

*title edited* sg

artist · #2 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:49 am

thanks cycloneye - will delete my thread then.

#3 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:56 am

000
WONT41 KNHC 221436
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

SunnyThoughts · #4 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:01 am

Thanks Alicia, I guess that answers the question about whether recon will be flying today. I suppose it doesn't have enough time to become anything more than a TS, but at least its something to track over the next 24 hours or so.

dwg71 · #5 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:34 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:Thanks Alicia, I guess that answers the question about whether recon will be flying today. I suppose it doesn't have enough time to become anything more than a TS, but at least its something to track over the next 24 hours or so.

Well 10 - 12 hours anyway....

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:39 am

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1

Statement as of Noon EDT on August 22, 2005

satellite imagery...Mexican radar data...and Quikscat ambiguities
indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche
has organized into a tropical depression. The initial intensity of
25 kt is based on Quikscat observations outside of the deep
convection and the presumption that the core circulation within the
convection is still broad. Upper-level outflow is very strong and
the water is warm...however...the system does not have very long
over the water to take advantage of these favorable conditions.
Although neither the SHIPS nor GFDL intensity guidance makes this
system a tropical storm...I prefer to err on the side of caution in
forecasting the depression to reach storm strength. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft will provide better information on the
strength of the cyclone late this afternoon.
The initial motion is 280/7. The depression is south of a mid-level
ridge and is expected to continue on a track just north of due west
until landfall.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1600z 19.5n 95.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 19.7n 96.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 19.9n 97.6w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 24/0000z...dissipated

Officially recon will go late this afternoon.

#7 Postby **MGC** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:05 pm

TD#11 looks to be organizing quickly today, I would not be surprised if recon finds a weak TS.....MGC

clfenwi · #8 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:32 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 221820
AF307 0111A INVEST HDOB 02 KNHC
1810 3025N 08855W 00003 5015 360 000 394 230 000 00001 0000000000
1810. 3025N 08855W 00003 5015 360 000 400 230 000 00001 0000000000
1811 3025N 08855W 00003 5015 360 000 400 232 000 00001 0000000000
1811. 3025N 08855W 00003 5015 360 000 404 232 000 00001 0000001100
1812 3025N 08855W 00003 5016 360 000 398 236 000 00000 0000001000
1812. 3025N 08855W 00003 5016 360 000 376 234 000 00000 0000000000
1813 3025N 08855W 00003 5016 360 000 394 232 000 00000 0000000000
1813. 3025N 08855W 00003 5016 360 000 400 232 000 00000 0000000000
1814 3025N 08855W 00003 5016 360 000 404 230 000 00000 0000001000
1814. 3025N 08855W 00003 5016 360 000 406 228 000 00000 0000001000
1815 3025N 08855W 00004 5016 360 000 406 228 000 00000 0000001000
1815. 3025N 08855W 00004 5017 360 000 400 228 000 00000 0000001000
1816 3025N 08855W 00004 5017 360 000 372 228 000 00000 0000000000
1816. 3025N 08855W 00004 5017 360 000 334 232 000 00000 0000000000
1817 3025N 08855W 00005 5018 203 000 314 234 001 00000 0000000000
1817. 3025N 08855W 00016 5016 197 005 300 248 006 00013 0000000000
1818 3024N 08856W 00149 5008 203 005 282 240 009 00154 0000000000
1818. 3023N 08857W 00251 0011 010 002 278 236 002 00275 0000000000
1819 3021N 08858W 00274 0012 019 003 276 234 003 00299 0000000000
1819. 3020N 08859W 00283 0013 022 003 272 232 003 00309 0000000000

recon is in the air on schedule....

clfenwi · #9 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:35 pm

SAB's estimate:

22/1745 UTC 19.2N 95.3W T2.0/2.0 11 -- Atlantic Ocean

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:37 pm

Wow this is one good looking depresssion. I think the recon will find us a tropical storm.

gkrangers · #11 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow this is one good looking depresssion. I think the recon will find us a tropical storm.

I agree.

wxwatcher91 · #12 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:58 pm

eh it doesnt look too bad but I'm gonna be the pessimest here today and say that recon will find a 35mph TD

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #13 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:01 pm

It is stacked with banding around a well defined LLC this is better organized then both Bret or Gert put together. But the thing is it is moving southwestward. In should be inland with in 3 hours.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I would be really suprized if they find Only a 35 mph tropical depression.

clfenwi · #14 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:01 pm

TAFB concurred with the 30 knot estimate and placed the center at 1980N, 9540W... interestingly, the two agencies have swapped in the relative positions of their estimates.

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:05 pm

wxwatcher91 · #16 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:06 pm

311
URNT11 KNHC 221904
97779 19004 21280 91200 73200 99005 66731 /5763
RMK AF307 0111A INVEST OB 01

clfenwi · #17 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:08 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:311
URNT11 KNHC 221904
97779 19004 21280 91200 73200 99005 66731 /5763
RMK AF307 0111A INVEST OB 01

OB 01
Time: 1900Z
Position: 28.0 North // 91.2 West
Flight Level: 7320 meters
Temp/Dewpoint (C): -16/-23
Weather: Scattered clouds
400 Millibar Height: 7630 meters

clfenwi · #18 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:43 pm

775
URNT11 KNHC 221941
97779 19304 21259 93100 73200 06019 66791 /5761
RMK AF307 0111A INVEST OB 02

OB 02
Time: 1930Z
Position: 25.9 North // 93.1 West
Flight Level: 7320 meters
FL Winds: 19 knots // 060
Temp/Dewpoint (C): -16/-19
Weather: Scattered Clouds
400 Millibar Height: 7610 meters

Based on their current progress, they will be in the vicinity of the center at 21Z/5 PM EDT... not really in time to provide solid input for the advisory package.

superfly · #19 Postby **superfly** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:54 pm

clfenwi wrote:775
URNT11 KNHC 221941
97779 19304 21259 93100 73200 06019 66791 /5761
RMK AF307 0111A INVEST OB 02

OB 02
Time: 1930Z
Position: 25.9 North // 93.1 West
Flight Level: 7320 meters
FL Winds: 19 knots // 060
Temp/Dewpoint (C): -16/-19
Weather: Scattered Clouds
400 Millibar Height: 7610 meters

Based on their current progress, they will be in the vicinity of the center at 21Z/5 PM EDT... not really in time to provide solid input for the advisory package.

They'll likely keep it a TD at 5 then do a special advisory if it's confirmed to have TS winds.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #20 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 3:09 pm

This is my option. But by the looks of this thing its possible they will find it as a 50 mph tropical storm. Lets see.

Tropical Storm Jose Recon Reports

Tropical Storm Jose Recon Reports

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