I know that some of us have mentioned this system already, but I think it deserves its own thread due to its potential.
I mentioned the wave being near 14N, but that was likely a little too far south due to a ship reporting WEST winds near 14N right off the coast. The low is probably north near 15N. Convection is exploding in an organized manner OVER water and right on top of the presumed low, which is something you don't see happen with every wave that moves offshore.
I would watch this wave as the environment as time goes by continues to improve in terms of dry air. The wave in front of it AGAIN has moistened the atmosphere even more in the area. SSTs are marginal near 80-81*, but enough for slow development. If the wave can maintain that latitude and NOT move in further north, it has much higher potential of maintaining itself and developing than our other two systems.
It shouldn't suprise if something develops out there because this time of year, everything that moves offshore and has a low with it with deepening convection over water HAS to be monitored.
Vigorous Tropical Wave/Low moving offshore Africa...
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Another thing I wanted to add is that the pattern over the Eastern Atlantic has changed over the past few days towards a pattern that is generally conducive for further development of tropical waves in the near future.
The earlier noreasterly flow near the CV islands that has brought in the dry air from the Sahara and the North Atlantic has veered around the Azores High to a more zonal flow. That is that the winds are now more East-West. This pattern change simply means that instead of having the SAL moving south towards the ITCZ, it will move more East-West right along the CV islands latitude. This should keep the majority of the dry air north of the tropical waves that move offshore as long as they do so in relatively low latitudes.
The earlier noreasterly flow near the CV islands that has brought in the dry air from the Sahara and the North Atlantic has veered around the Azores High to a more zonal flow. That is that the winds are now more East-West. This pattern change simply means that instead of having the SAL moving south towards the ITCZ, it will move more East-West right along the CV islands latitude. This should keep the majority of the dry air north of the tropical waves that move offshore as long as they do so in relatively low latitudes.
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