Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[ConvergenceZone]

Let all the CV storms be fish, as once the Carib season kicks in and the hurricanes start coming towards the USA, we'll be very happy that all of the CV storms turned out to sea as the Carib storms won't have that chance to do that....


I think the Carib storms will start revving up early next month

[Sanibel]

Wave is busting. Center is dried out by Saharan Air Layer dessicating central Atlantic...

[ConvergenceZone]

If this ONCE impressive wave doesn't make it, then no wave will..... That was about as impressive wave as there can be.

Guess we just have to look forward to the Carib systems.

[Anonymous]

Ugh...(MIKE NASO SEES THE WORD SAL AND EXPLODES)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

22/0600 UTC 14.1N 27.3W TOO WEAK 97L

[cycloneye]

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N27.5W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W/28W THAT EXTENDS S OF
21N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT VARIOUS LEVELS MAKING THE
EXACT LOW LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-32W. GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CENTER...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

The above from 8:05 AM Discussion.

Wave is disognanized right now with 2 areas of convection one to the north which may be the main area to watch and another smaller to the south.Until all the system consolidates TD formation wont occur.

[WindRunner]

06Z runs:

WHXX01 KWBC 220645
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050822 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 0600 050822 1800 050823 0600 050823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 27.6W 14.6N 29.6W 15.4N 31.7W 16.2N 33.8W
BAMM 13.8N 27.6W 14.8N 29.8W 15.7N 32.0W 16.6N 34.6W
A98E 13.8N 27.6W 14.2N 29.7W 14.8N 32.0W 15.6N 34.4W
LBAR 13.8N 27.6W 14.5N 29.9W 15.9N 32.4W 17.1N 35.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 0600 050825 0600 050826 0600 050827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 35.8W 18.4N 39.7W 19.6N 42.8W 21.4N 46.7W
BAMM 17.4N 37.1W 19.0N 41.7W 20.3N 45.6W 22.1N 49.6W
A98E 16.5N 36.7W 18.1N 41.1W 19.8N 45.0W 23.2N 48.3W
LBAR 18.3N 37.4W 21.0N 40.9W 23.4N 43.0W 26.6N 43.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 27.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


No SHIPS/DSHIPS run though? I guess not organized enough?

[Hyperstorm]

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N27.5W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W/28W THAT EXTENDS S OF
21N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT VARIOUS LEVELS MAKING THE
EXACT LOW LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-32W. GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CENTER...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

The above from 8:05 AM Discussion.

Wave is disognanized right now with 2 areas of convection one to the north which may be the main area to watch and another smaller to the south.Until all the system consolidates TD formation wont occur.

....And that will take several days at the earliest, IF at all.

I haven't been here in a while, but the area to watch is NOT the one near the ITCZ which the models are showing near 13.8N, rather is the one further north roughly near 17-18N, 30W. Here's a simple image of where is the main area to watch according to satellite imagery:



That is the area that appears to have the "best" potential out of the whole envelope of the storm. There appears to be a strong cyclonic turning there and the channel of moisture from the ITCZ (inflow) is being drawn towards it.

There are two factors against it right now:

1) Located over relatively cool SSTs (70s).

2) Located over an area of very dry and stable air.

The system will have to move WEST of 40W for it to get out of this cool dry air that is overtaking its primary circulation. It is also becoming increasingly likely that if this center becomes the "storm", it will likely miss the islands due to its initial high latitude.

The problem for these waves this year is that they are coming off the coast at unusually high latitudes (15N+) right into the "heart" of the dry air and cool SSTs. If these waves were moving off the coast at, say 12-13N, chances of development would be much higher.

While that image I posted is up, take a look at our next wave poised to move offshore within the next 12-24 hours. It also has potential if it maintains a fairly southern latitude. Right now it is located near 14N.

We'll see...

[nequad]

IR imagery from NRL shows some thunderstorms trying to fire near the center. Also...deeper convection is trying to wrap up the eastern flank this morning.

Can the moist ITCZ overpower the SAL? Only time will tell.

No matter what happens to 97L, it will leave it's mark over the eastern Atlantic by bringing the ITCZ further north. The next few waves to emerge off the continent should have better conditions to develop.

[WeatherEmperor]

IR imagery from NRL shows some thunderstorms trying to fire near the center. Also...deeper convection is trying to wrap up the eastern flank this morning.

Can the moist ITCZ overpower the SAL? Only time will tell.

No matter what happens to 97L, it will leave it's mark over the eastern Atlantic by bringing the ITCZ further north. The next few waves to emerge off the continent should have better conditions to develop.

do you have a quick link to that so I can take a look?

<RICKY>

[nequad]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15


It's the same link cycloneye has been posting. Be sure to animate!

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks for link. Wow the African coast looks pretty dry. Man Im tellin you if this thing or the invest 98 in the Gulf dont form into Jose or whatever then this August is gonna be a major bust.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

22/1200 UTC 16.1N 31.2W TOO WEAK 97 -- Atlantic Ocean


Way up in latitud so no problem for the lesser antilles and it is very poorly organized right now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050822 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 31.4W 16.3N 33.6W 16.6N 35.8W 17.0N 37.9W
BAMM 16.0N 31.4W 16.4N 33.9W 16.5N 36.6W 16.7N 39.2W
A98E 16.0N 31.4W 16.2N 34.3W 16.2N 37.2W 16.4N 40.0W
LBAR 16.0N 31.4W 16.6N 34.0W 17.3N 36.9W 18.0N 39.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 1200 050825 1200 050826 1200 050827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 39.8W 18.7N 42.8W 21.0N 45.1W 25.7N 46.6W
BAMM 16.9N 41.5W 17.6N 45.1W 18.9N 47.6W 21.8N 50.4W
A98E 16.4N 42.6W 17.2N 46.3W 18.5N 48.9W 22.9N 50.8W
LBAR 18.5N 42.6W 20.2N 47.1W 21.7N 49.4W 29.8N 50.1W
SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 83KTS 88KTS
DSHP 54KTS 70KTS 83KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 31.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 28.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 25.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Let's see if it starts to consolidated within the low pressure at 16n but it has to deal with the sal more to the north.

[artist]

FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page

http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20050822 ... ST.97L.jpg

[Patrick99]

We are going to have to wait for these things to approach the islands this year, for any real chance at development, it seems.

This just doesn't seem to be a great East Atlantic year.

[Frank2]

It seems that this disturbance is now moving WNW - click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

P.S. What a change from 48 hours ago!

[wxwatcher91]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH..

[WeatherEmperor]

still giving it a chance. at least they arent writing it off yet.

<RICKY>

[HURAKAN]

The system does have a chance to develop, but it seems the dry air is winning.