Check out the latsest CMC model

[Steve]

Frank,

>>Yes, you are correct (though I wish the public would understand that when it was mentioned that we'd have a "record" season - many do not know that this only refers to statistics), though I still believe he will lower his totals just a bit - the Atlantic environment is just not very supportive of anything at this time.

How does this refer only to "statistics" and how are those "statistics" invalid when it comes to possible threats? As for the Atlantic Environment, it's got some favorable areas and will be more so in other areas in the coming days.

>>Even the very strong African wave of Saturday is still struggling - this type of system would usually be a depression by this time.

How many storms or depressions have we had develop that far east this year? Usually doesn't say if you meant this season, other seasons or whatever. There was some dry air and cooler water over that part of the Atlantic early on. Most development this year has been farther west (like the majority {though not all} of storms that have formed the last few years.

>>As for the indicators - many have mentioned upcoming changes over the past 6 weeks, but, in the end not much has changed (as of today).

MJO is moving into the basin. 98L's got a 50/50 shot to go today and the global models nearly all do something with ex10 as the week wears on. As of today, we've got potential. As for later in the week...

Chris,

>>Frank2, exactly I totally agree.

Am I wrong or did you start the "The SAL Will be the Story of 2005 Hurricane Season" thread? Now I agree with you guys that there's not much beyond potential today, but stay tuned. There's a legitimate chance that 2 storms get names or classifications this week. Both of these systems are close and will likely have impact on land areas. - JMO

Steve

[clfenwi]

All but one of the members of the Candian Ensemble that are developing this run it north rather than west (and the one that runs it west doesn't do so for much longer after it enters the GOM... turns it north into the Big Bend area).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/CMC ... rloop.html

[weatherwindow]

good morning frank....i concur with your conclusiions on the atlantic pattern....this is certainly not 2004's ridge! it appears we are reverting to the pattern extant 1995-2003... longwave ridge-trough pattern yeilding persistent UL troughiness near the east coast with frequent intrusions south of 30deg N. IMO, 1995 may be the appropriate analog year with respect to tracking. it was marked by early recurvature of CV systems, generally east of the islands. the major threats to the islands/US, during august and sept, were either relatively low latitude systems forming further west and south or delayed developing systems forming west of 70-75deg W and "sneaking" under the trough. an active western caribbean provided the action in late sept- early nov......lets see if this pattern plays out . i personally believe that the major US threats, this year, will follow this pattern with a particular emphasis on a potentially very active western caribbean, late season.....may everyone remain safe and sound for the remainder of the season................................rich

[Frank2]

How does this refer only to "statistics" and how are those "statistics" invalid when it comes to possible threats?

They are not invalid in that they are wrong, but, may only mean that the season will be active only in a statistical sense - there have been many seasons that have featured more than one powerful Cape Verde hurricane, but, if none make landfall, then, as far as the public (or governments) are concerned, then the season was inactive - I've heard this comment made more than once.

Frank

P.S. I've noticed that the fine print at the bottom of Dr. Gray's forecasts explains this issue in detail.

[Frank2]

Re: weatherwindow's post

I agree that the season resembles the seasons of the late '90's and of several years ago - if it's true, then, the predictions for this season will be off by a great measure.

I think some, even forecasters, were just so intimidated by last year's events, that they were almost in a sense afraid to say that the season would not be active, even if in their heart they felt otherwise. I know this is not a popular point of view (an understatement), but, human nature is human nature - and sometimes moreso when it comes to forecasting the weather.

In reference to what you mentioned - someone else said the same thing about the western Caribbean last season, but the season ended quickly and quietly. With yet another major "cold" front sweeping eastward, I wouldn't be surprised to see another quickly end to the season.

Frank

[Javlin]

Frank with the MJO moving E as it should the whole Atlantic basin will be prime for development before long.As for landfalls and more recurves that is possible depending on how development goes with the system in the far E ATL.Should the systems remain weak then they will not feel the influences of trophs as much and continue W.It seems now that we have hole in between the two ridges for the most part to assume that it will remain that way for the remainder of the season is improbable.Recurves to me will only occur if we are dealing with true CV storms and that is those that develop within a 1000 miles of the Islands(CV) and at a higher latitude.Those that develop S of 15'N I think have the potential for long trackers.

[Frank2]

We'll see what happens, though the weakness in the mid-Atlantic has been there for many weeks, and as the Fall approaches, would more than not be enhanced by southeastward-moving cold fronts.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

We'll see what happens, though the weakness in the mid-Atlantic has been there for many weeks, and as the Fall approaches, would more than not be enhanced by southeastward-moving cold fronts.

Frank

So do you think this means no more east coast threatening cape verde storms?

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

[KWT]

I think personally we are going to see another 8-9 depressions at the least,we may now be seeing things kicking off,Td-11 which formed in well,a tiny amount of time,TD-10's remains still showing some signs of actvity and once it drifts into the GOM some serious development may well occur,then we have 97L which will have shake of dry air but it still has a chance down the road.

[Steve]

>>We'll see what happens, though the weakness in the mid-Atlantic

Yeah, that's been there most of the summer. It's just my opinion, but I
think that it's part of the overall pattern we've been in since late spring.
At the sea-surface, it appears to me like the main Atlantic high
pressure is farther east this year. And then smaller highs come in
to the picture via the US mid-Atlantic Coast. They occasionally
merge with the larger Atlantic High but sometimes have two
distinct centers of high pressure. This allows that alley-way
out in the Central Atlantic.

Steve

[OuterBanker]

Good general concessus on this so far. Development north of Bahamas through Fla to gulf and hurricane ing gulf. Strong high pressure will bring it into Gulf. Some models west into gulf, some ne back through Fla. Will be interesting to say the least. I hope everyone enjoyed the time off. I have a feeling that we won't have another lull for some time.

[WeatherEmperor]

we could use some rain in FL right about now.

<RICKY>

[jlauderdal]

we could use some rain in FL right about now.

<RICKY>

at least in SE florida, dry and super hot especially right at the coast by me. go up on that doppler radar tower over at channel 6 and do a rain dance.

[WeatherEmperor]

we could use some rain in FL right about now.

<RICKY>

at least in SE florida, dry and super hot especially right at the coast by me. go up on that doppler radar tower over at channel 6 and do a rain dance.

nah. Roland could be anywhere with a sniper and take me out.

<RICKY>