"Heads up in the Plains and Midwest AGAIN!"

[azsnowman]

Well, here we go again :o We've got a system poised to strike here in a few hours, rain and thunderstorms for us, we could use the rain but NOT the thunderstorms :o I was watching a local met this a.m., he said that when this system exits Arizona it's going to cause another round of HUGE t boomers and more severe weather in the same areas as the last few weeks :o

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST WED MAY 14 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS STORM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS
(I.E., DIVQ) AND VVEL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT OF S-SW WINDS AND RAPIDLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PW...MAINLY DISTRIBUTED IN THE MID LEVELS. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE BNDY
LAYER RESULTING IN SOME MEASURABLE PCPN. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LARGE SINCE IT DOES NEED TO OVERCOME THE DRY
BNDY LAYER. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY CHANCE POPS MOST ZONES FOR THE
EVENT.

SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP
ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD END DURING THE DAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE ERN BORDER WHERE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE
SPRING. COULD SEE TEMPS APPROACH 80 IN FLAGSTAFF AND HIT 100 IN THE
DESERTS AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND TEMPS FALL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

Dennis :o

[Nalora]

They are saying this system will affect us come Friday.

And dont worry, about the time I am here complaining of the heat and dryness, you AZ desert folk will be wallowing in rain.

Nalora

[azsnowman]

God I hope so, we NEED the rain, BAD!!! I've lived in the mountians of Az for over 37 years now, I've never seen it so dry. We are in the 8th year of the worst drought in recorded history! Where I live, the average snowfall per year is over 132", this past winter we came CLOSE, 118" total, but that's a drop in the bucket, it didn't even put a DENT in the drought, all it did was to promote undergrowth to fuel more wildfires this summer!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

OH Nalora, FYI, where I live, elevation 7200', I'm far from being a *desert rat!* "LOL!" I live in the middle eastern part of the state, home to the largest mountain range in Az. Elevation ranges from 5000' to over 12,000', it's been said the White Mountains resemble the Canadian forests!

Dennis

[Guest]

Nalora,

Where are you located? Just curious - it doesn't show in your profile or to the left when you post messages?

Patricia

[Nalora]

Nalora,

Where are you located? Just curious - it doesn't show in your profile or to the left when you post messages?

Patricia

Hrm, have to look at my preferences, I live in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. I was born in Shawnee, Oklahoma, about 40 miles east of here. My folks moved to Oklahoma City when I was 6 months old, to the southside here where I still live. Parts of my family have been here in Oklahoma since 1834 when Nathan Boone (my great great great great great grandfather) was stationed at Fort Gibson, Indian Territory with the First Dragoons who surveyed the land here in central Oklahoma. My Missouri family were from Chariton, Howard and Carroll counties, and came to Oklahoma permanently in the 1870's. Other parts of my family entered after the civil war, but before statehood, from Georgia. And then there is my Indian relatives who came down from Missouri (Sac Fox tribe)

and that....is prolly more than you wish to know. heh.

Nalora

[chadtm80]

There you go.. It shows now... I was wondering as well..

Keep your heads to the sky everyone, and send some of the rain my way would ya

[Nalora]

God I hope so, we NEED the rain, BAD!!! I've lived in the mountians of Az for over 37 years now, I've never seen it so dry. We are in the 8th year of the worst drought in recorded history! Where I live, the average snowfall per year is over 132", this past winter we came CLOSE, 118" total, but that's a drop in the bucket, it didn't even put a DENT in the drought, all it did was to promote undergrowth to fuel more wildfires this summer!

Dennis

Drought has GOT to be the most underreported weather tragedy there is, and is so despairing!!! Hell last year the darn yankees up north had just a tiny taste of it, and it was finally a cause for great alarm and fuss.

Always amazed at how the newsfolks just ignore the flyover states. It is as if we do not exist. I watch the drought conditions pretty avidly myself, and prayed mightily for those poor folks in North Carolina and Florida the last couple years. I have noticed that your area and up into Utah have been suffering mightily for quite a few years now.

My own theory on this whole drought thing has to do with a general weather pattern shift the last 6 years. Now this is just me, and I am not trained like most folks on here, but Oklahoma and Texas had a good 4 years of drought from 1996 to 2000. We had a short run from 93 to 95 of drought but the really severe one was right in there at 1996 to 2000 when we finally got some good soaking spring rains.

Now at the same time, we had really light tornado seasons those years, until the big blast of 1999. And it seemed to me, that the tornado and rain season for states just east of us was extremely high...in fact it seemed to me that the whole weather pattern had shifted to the east some. Now, I think that we are just now getting back into a "normal" pattern for Oklahoma and Texas, and when WE get back to normal, then AZ will too.
This is just an uneducated theory...but it has held true so far.

I watch AZ weather a lot because I have folks over that way, btw.

Nalora

[Stephanie]

Hi Nalora! I heard alot about you from Miss Mary in one of her posts.

I remember Askalhuna (Steve) discussing the one of the many phenomenons that have affected the SW's drought back on TWC boards. I think it has something to do with the Pacific Oscillation that tends to run in 16 year cycles. Unfortunately, the SW seems to only be at the half-way point. The El Nino/La Nina has an affect as well, but those cycles are very short lived (about 1 1/2 years - 2 years I think). The El Nino should've helped them, and actually it did finally in the winter with their near-normal snowfall, but not enough to put a dent into it. I think you're right that there have been weather shifts in the past several years. I am BY NO MEANS an expert - but I'm learning!! We have a wealth of knowledge available just from the people here on these boards.

Yeah, our drought was pretty scary up here, for us. I don't remember anything so severe, but I know it's nothing compared to what all of you in the SW, South and SE have experienced. My father and his girlfriend live in Colorado and it has been horrendous out there too. When I went to visit last August we drove through the area that had been hit with that monster fire set by the woman that worked for the state. It was unbelievable!

[Nalora]

Ha! First time I ever heard of El Nino was 1983 in Panama. Then....I dunno a few years back it seemed all the rage to blame everything on the El Nino/El Nina pattern. I can't help but giggle still when I hear people toss this term around like they did the word "paradigm" a couple years ago in the philosophy circles. Seems people get their minds wrapped around some word and use it til it has no real meaning at all.

Anyway...I yammer. Its the humidity. Think it goes to my head and makes me dizzy. Someone tell it to stop so I can go back out in my garden and leave yall folk alone. heh.

Nalora

[Stephanie]

Ha! First time I ever heard of El Nino was 1983 in Panama. Then....I dunno a few years back it seemed all the rage to blame everything on the El Nino/El Nina pattern. I can't help but giggle still when I hear people toss this term around like they did the word "paradigm" a couple years ago in the philosophy circles. Seems people get their minds wrapped around some word and use it til it has no real meaning at all.

Anyway...I yammer. Its the humidity. Think it goes to my head and makes me dizzy. Someone tell it to stop so I can go back out in my garden and leave yall folk alone. heh.

Nalora

No, actually your "yammer" is quite funny!

You're right El Nino/La Nina were the flavors of the year for awhile, but now they are coming up with newer, fancier terms and conditions that help explain the weather patterns.

I think that soon they'll just end up saying "sh!t happens!"

[wx247]

LOL Stephanie! That is quite possible!

[grentz7721]

Rain and Thunderstorms were coming into Ohio when I checked the
weather.com Radar back at 6PM.

[Nalora]

Ok, so now they are saying this next system is going to affect Oklahoma tomorrow night late.

What do yall say? Who's gonna win the tornado lottery in Oklahoma tomorrow?

Nalora

[wx247]

It looks right now like a major svr. weather event may be brewing for some areas of Texas, and to a lesser extent, Oklahoma. The best chance for tornadoes looks to be from extreme EC New Mexico into the Lubbock area into SW Oklahoma west of Lawton.