My morning tropical cyclone outlook

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

N/m


Please lock this threat. Thanks!

[jlauderdal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical weather outlook
8-22-2005
4:30am


A Well defined tropcial distrabances has developed convection over its well defined center. This center is around 18.8/93.4...Curve banding has developed over the western side of the system. In farther organizion is expected as it moves to the west-northwest around 10 mph. A recon will check it out later today. Also to note, a surface ob to the southwest of the system reported west wind.


A well defined area of low pressure has developed around 20.5/71. Convection has increased over this system. By night time satellite shows a well defined area of low pressure has formed. In which you can tell it. By the clouds moving out of to south, on the east side of the system wraping back around on the northern side. Only slow development should be expected intill it starts to move away from hati. A ULL to the north is also causing some winds shear. The Gfs wents to form a weak system moving west-northwest into Florida. But the other extream is the 00z cmc. Which wents to move this south of the keys. In which bombs the system. So development is expected durning the next few days.


The sysem southwest of the Cape verdes has developed a closed LLC. Based on quickscat data. With a area of 30 to 35 knot winds over the southern side. But over the last few hours on Ir satellite shows a broad low level cirualtion near 14.6/28.5. In which there is not much convection to the system at this time. The reason for this maybe because it is moving into a area of dry air. Which is shown by the water vapor... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

Slow develop is still possible over the next few days...

A system moving off Africa 12/18 appears to becoming better organized. In might have a better chance then the one ahead of it. The Gfs also develops it.


Forecaster Matthew

my christmas present to you will be a spell checker.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Man that was cold. WOW!

[WeatherEmperor]

You say a well defined low has formed around 20N 70W. Im assuming these are associated with the remnants of TD 10. How can you tell a surface low has formed there?

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look for your self!
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Frank2]

There does seem to a weak low forming just north of the Dominican Republic, but, it's too close to land at this time to probably strengthen much further, while it continues moving slowly westward.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

its too hard to say. that is a very jumpy loop and not enough visible shots. Ill wait for another couple of hours and check that loop again and see for sure.

<RICKY>

[boca]

It looks like its just off the northern coast of Haiti. I can't tell which way its moving because the satelites are jumpy.

[WeatherEmperor]

oh i can see it a little better now yes. doesnt look like it will last long cause you can see an upper low coming right at it from the north.

<RICKY>

[boca]

It looks like its inching up towards the SE Bahamas.I think this will remain just a wave.

[tallbunch]

that spell checker statement was just rude.

[TPACane04]

I agree, Lauderdale was rude for that....I think he meant to say that the spell checker would be a gift for LABOR DAY...

after all, no one should have to go through the whole hurricane season with extra typos in their forecasts!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is why I don't make forecast. I'v got my own problems when it comes to stuff like this This will be the last one of these I'm going to make. I will do one liners in the threads(To try to hide my bad grammr).

I'm very sorry if I caused any trouble.

[tallbunch]

Don't do that. Everyone makes spelling errors. I never understand why one would care so much. I hardly noticed on your first post.

[Rainband]

This is why I don't make forecast. I'v got my own problems when it comes to stuff like this This will be the last one of these I'm going to make. I will do one liners in the threads(To try to hide my bad grammr).

I'm very sorry if I caused any trouble.

Matt. Use the Blue template on the board ,go to your profile to change it. It has spell checker. I use it. As for the comment from the other poster. Don't worry about it. No one is perfect.

[storms in NC]

Hey don't worry about it. If it wasn't for the spell check no one would be able to read any thing I write. and I am old

[Hurricanehink]

So there were a few mistakes, oh well. Great forecast. Don't quit now.

[gatorcane]

agree, Lauderdale was rude for that....I think he meant to say that the spell checker would be a gift for LABOR DAY...

after all, no one should have to go through the whole hurricane season with extra typos in their forecasts

He probably assumes the season will be over by Labor Day given the lack of activity the past several weeks...so Christmas makes sense!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So there were a few mistakes, oh well. Great forecast. Don't quit now.

Thank you...I won't give up. Just have to be more careful.

[TPACane04]

I happen to be in the employment industry, and have seen my fair share of TYPOS in resumes and cover letters.

Guess where these end up? The trash bin. So there is a reason to at least proof what you fire out on this wonderful board. This place is getting too P/C when we start defending posters like they are four year olds just learning to write.

So let's make sure that we understand the difference between a minor oopsie, and a post with more than say, five.

and.... spellcheck does not catch errors like "their" vs "there" <<<<<<because thats grammar maybe??>>>>

I wonder if NHC spell checks their stuff....I am betting they do. it's a little thing called "credibility"..... <<<<<Rainband wrote in response>>>>There is a little thing called respect too. There is also a great PM function on the board. Just food for thought. BTW enlighten me on what you me by we are too P/C. Thanks.