Possible TX and LA GOM Threat

[KatDaddy]

I knew that heading would get some attention. The remnants of Ex-TD10 and tropical wave will headed WNW and into the GOM through the week. If it does develop over the Florida Straits the steering currents WNW through the GOM toward you guessed it TX and LA. Here are a few excerpts for this mornings. AFDs

Corpus Christi:

LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. MID AND UPR LVL RDG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON S TX WX...MAINTAINING A MAINLY DRY AND HOT
FORECAST. THE MID AND UPR LVL RDG DOES HOWEVER SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING
INCREASING PWATS WORKING AROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE RDG...FM LA INTO
SE TX AND MAYBE INTO THE NRN COASTAL BEND THU AND FRI. AS A RESULT
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NE CWA ON THU AND FRI.
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVER NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE WATCHING
OUT TOWARDS THE EASTERN AND NORTH/CNTRL GULF OF MX AS
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOWING TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY DOWN NEAR
HISPANIOLA AND TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.

[KatDaddy]

MOBILE AFD:

)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IN
THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FAME...THEN MEANDERING SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

[shaggy]

better yall than me!

[Dean4Storms]

That threat extends eastward to included Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

[dhweather]

New Orleans AFD doesn't mention it. Mobile does:

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IN
THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FAME...THEN MEANDERING SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHOVED WESTWARD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
FA...WITH A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY WARM FORECAST...WITH POPS BELOW CLIMO.
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

[artist]

here is this from Miami discussion -

ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE PROMISES A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK. 06Z GFS SHOWS CONTINUED VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
OF COURSE...IT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. REMAINS
THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EASTERN END OF THIS
RIDGE HAS ERODED A LITTLE AND MAYBE BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD HAVE OUR
ZONES UNDER A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THIS WOULD TAKE US OUT OF THE
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING. IN THE MEANTIME THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL MOVING WEST AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF US BY
PRE-DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. SEE NO REASON THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WEST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WE
ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TODAY SO THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG. THUS WILL PUT PROBABILITIES IN
TO MATCH YESTERDAYS COVERAGE. BY MID WEEK WE SHOULD BE IN A BROAD
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HAVE
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THAT TIME. BY LATE IN THE WEEK
THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HELP REBUILD AN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE PENINSULA.

SO TROPICAL WAVE IMPACT MAINLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

[LaBreeze]

A couple of local mets have stated in their forecast that we may need to "watch the Gulf" early next week.

[Steve]

>>That threat extends eastward to included Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Naturally. And the SW Coast of FL should be included too. We don't want anyone to be left out of more potential action.

Steve

[jasons2k]

Bit surprised HGX (Houston) doesn't mention; they're usually one of the very first to jump on the bandwagon

[Dean4Storms]

Bit surprised HGX (Houston) doesn't mention; they're usually one of the very first to jump on the bandwagon

Really I'm not all that surprised as most of the models keep ridging back over TX. and the western Gulf. Looks like a threat from LA eastward at this point, but we all know how quickly that could change.

[Swimdude]

Wow... Too bad Houston isn't mentioning the possibility of something forming that doesn't even exist yet. I'm so bummed!

[Steve H.]

Well don't fret swimdude, if you believe the 12Z Canadien, this is gonna go through the Florida Straits and head to Texas as a 'cane, as two other 'canes in the Atlantic spin.

[KatDaddy]

Thank goodness for the ridge. If this was moving N toward TX we would be in trouble. Texas has been very lucky this this season.

[Galvestongirl]

Thank goodness for the ridge. If this was moving N toward TX we would be in trouble. Texas has been very lucky this this season.

texas has been very lucky for several seasons

[TS Zack]

Most likely a track towards West La/North Tx.

This wave will be a slow mover, therefore you must look out past 102hrs. A ridge will be in place but as a trough gradually digs into the Northwestern Portion of the US, it will break down the ridge. Turning steering currents more Nrothwesterly across the Central Gulf.

North Gulf Coast event!

[jax]

Most likely a track towards West La/North Tx.

This wave will be a slow mover, therefore you must look out past 102hrs. A ridge will be in place but as a trough gradually digs into the Northwestern Portion of the US, it will break down the ridge. Turning steering currents more Nrothwesterly across the Central Gulf.

North Gulf Coast event!

i think it will sit in the middle gulf for a few days... then head back for
Gulf Shores / Pensacola area... JMHO

[deltadog03]

Thank goodness for the ridge. If this was moving N toward TX we would be in trouble. Texas has been very lucky this this season.

yeah, but, the ridge could also very well steer this in out direction...true the flow is into MEXICO right NOW....BUT, that will be changing by time there would be anything into the gulf...and there might not...great post zack...

[southerngale]

Most likely a track towards West La/North Tx.

This wave will be a slow mover, therefore you must look out past 102hrs. A ridge will be in place but as a trough gradually digs into the Northwestern Portion of the US, it will break down the ridge. Turning steering currents more Nrothwesterly across the Central Gulf.

North Gulf Coast event!

Southeast Texas. North Texas would be like Amarillo or Witchita Falls, etc. I don't think anything will ever be making landfall there. hehe

Since you're the junior TV met star, I figured I'd let you know there's nothing north about where I live.