GFS=Horrible

[deltadog03]

well folks, the GFS is horrible!! Remember the big Eastern US trof?? and that the cold front was gonna make it all the way into NW FL?? This was gonna pull crappy ex td10 out to sea? Sorry folks not gonna happen...I don't think the front is even gonna make it to the TN,GA,AL border. I guess my point is that everyone shouldn't put so much stock into the GFS. anyway rant over...here is the surface map...

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, troughs aren't the only factors with tropical systems... if the dry air in the eastern edge of the Caribbean as well as the shear in the southeastern U.S. and northwest Caribbean continues it may not matter if we don't get a trough to pull INVEST.97L or other systems out to sea.

[deltadog03]

oh, I know that...I was just pointing out how the GFS loves to ALWAYS break down ridges and lower heights...The fact of the matter is that fronts just don't get down in the south this time of the year...**they do on occasion** also, thats why you see the GFS recurve MANY systems

[Javlin]

Someone pointed out that the GFS is good possibily good for one thing pattern recognition.The fact that it starts to pick up on alot of systems in the the Atlantic again may be asign of things to come.Just not as many as the GFS says.

[TS Zack]

Look what month your in!

[Javlin]

Yea I Zack what I was referring to was the change in the MJO basically and that is why the GFS is possibily making something out of everything.

[WeatherEmperor]

I thougth I was the only one noticing it. By today Sunday afternoon it was supposed to approaching the Georgia area and by Monday it was supposed to be nearing the extreme North Florida area and its not even close to doing that anytime soon.

<RICKY>

[ALhurricane]

Not that I am defending the GFS, but if truth be told almost ALL of the model guidance, including the beloved EURO, showed the cold front barreling down into the SE United States. It is apparent that will not happen. It wasn't just a GFS bust, it was an all out model bust.

Just want to keep things in the proper perspective.

[WeatherEmperor]

Not that I am defending the GFS, but if truth be told almost ALL of the model guidance, including the beloved EURO, showed the cold front barreling down into the SE United States. It is apparent that will not happen. It wasn't just a GFS bust, it was an all out model bust.

Just want to keep things in the proper perspective.

You are right. I have to admit that I was wrong in assuming only the GFS forecast that trough happen.

<RICKY>

[Patrick99]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot....where is this "vigorous trough??" All I see is vigorous SE flow.

[Steve H.]

Right now, shear is the main inhibiting factor, 'specially with the area near the Bahamas. Gee, I thought conditions were getting favorable There is fairly strong shear over the Greater Antilles. Forget the dry air issues, as i've seen systems deal with that via high SSTs and light shear. This is my main complaint with the NHC. They can't get the shear forecast right, even within a few hours. Is it that difficult

[WeatherEmperor]

Right now, shear is the main inhibiting factor, 'specially with the area near the Bahamas. Gee, I thought conditions were getting favorable There is fairly strong shear over the Greater Antilles. Forget the dry air issues, as i've seen systems deal with that via high SSTs and light shear. This is my main complaint with the NHC. They can't get the shear forecast right, even within a few hours. Is it that difficult

it seems to be more difficult then thought.

<RICKY>

[nequad]

The GFS...just like any other model...is useless if you take it at face value alone.

Used in conjuction with other guidance and forecasting tools, the GFS can be a very good forecasting tool. It is far from being useless.

[Downdraft]

oh, I know that...I was just pointing out how the GFS loves to ALWAYS break down ridges and lower heights...The fact of the matter is that fronts just don't get down in the south this time of the year...**they do on occasion** also, thats why you see the GFS recurve MANY systems

It was a strong front that made Charlie tear across Florida last August 13th if I remember right.

[deltadog03]

oh, I know that...I was just pointing out how the GFS loves to ALWAYS break down ridges and lower heights...The fact of the matter is that fronts just don't get down in the south this time of the year...**they do on occasion** also, thats why you see the GFS recurve MANY systems

It was a strong front that made Charlie tear across Florida last August 13th if I remember right.

It was....you just don't find tooo many of them this time of year

[jkt21787]

Not that I am defending the GFS, but if truth be told almost ALL of the model guidance, including the beloved EURO, showed the cold front barreling down into the SE United States. It is apparent that will not happen. It wasn't just a GFS bust, it was an all out model bust.

Just want to keep things in the proper perspective.

Exactly right AL. Its hard to make a forecast that goes against every model out there. Just because its summer and fronts have a tough time, doesn't mean a forecast should go by the "hunch" it won't or by climo, the models were overwhelmingly supportive of that pattern and it was clear that was the way to go.

Unfortunately it didn't work out. I could care less what impact it has on the tropics, all I know that the heat will remain place here which I don't like at all.

[kmanWX]

well folks, the GFS is horrible!! Remember the big Eastern US trof?? and that the cold front was gonna make it all the way into NW FL?? This was gonna pull crappy ex td10 out to sea? Sorry folks not gonna happen...I don't think the front is even gonna make it to the TN,GA,AL border. I guess my point is that everyone shouldn't put so much stock into the GFS. anyway rant over...here is the surface map...

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.html

shouldn't you post that disclaimer which Storm2k posted in the main sticked thread?

[jkt21787]

well folks, the GFS is horrible!! Remember the big Eastern US trof?? and that the cold front was gonna make it all the way into NW FL?? This was gonna pull crappy ex td10 out to sea? Sorry folks not gonna happen...I don't think the front is even gonna make it to the TN,GA,AL border. I guess my point is that everyone shouldn't put so much stock into the GFS. anyway rant over...here is the surface map...

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.html

shouldn't you post that disclaimer which Storm2k posted in the main sticked thread?

I could be wrong, but I don't this its needed unless making a forecast for a tropical system. He's actually stating fact at this point, GFS was wrong (but so were the other models) and the trof wont dig and the front won't move as far south as anticipated earlier in the week.

[deltadog03]

yeah, I wasn't forecasting...just simply stating a fact...and yes AL, and kevin, I prob. should rename it to ALL models busted...The reason why I singled out the GFS is because it seems like there is MANY on this board who soley rely on the GFS and live and die by that model. This was intended to be like a learning thing so to speak...thanks for pointing that out