ACCUWEATHER AGREES with me. watch off se coast

[rainstorm]

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.
http://www.accuweather.com

[WeatherEmperor]

what anime did you get that avatar from?

<RICKY>

[rainstorm]

what anime did you get that avatar from?

<RICKY>

i got it from s2k. concern growing off se coast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wake me when something even starts to form.

[WeatherEmperor]

what anime did you get that avatar from?

<RICKY>

i got it from s2k. concern growing off se coast

........lol ooook. thanx.

<RICKY>

[ronjon]

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.
http://www.accuweather.com

I agree and it has some model support from the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET, and 00Z CMC. The GFS moves it in the same direction but leaves it an open wave. The convection has certainly blown up again today. At the very least, some drenching rains look to be in store for the FL peninsula later this week.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5082112!!/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[WeatherEmperor]

I see a strong upper low coming down and shearing whatever is left from TD10 completely apart and it should be over with no later then tomorrow.

<RICKY>

[ronjon]

I see a strong upper low coming down and shearing whatever is left from TD10 completely apart and it should be over with no later then tomorrow.

<RICKY>

There is no TD so shear on an open wave often produces more convection. I don't think anyone thinks it will develop until the "wave" gets into the western bahamas later this week - say wednesday.

[WeatherEmperor]

I see a strong upper low coming down and shearing whatever is left from TD10 completely apart and it should be over with no later then tomorrow.

<RICKY>

There is no TD so shear on an open wave often produces more convection. I don't think anyone thinks it will develop until the "wave" gets into the western bahamas later this week - say wednesday.

right

<RICKY>

[jrod]

I agree too. Also when that area starts to get some of the energy form the remnants of TD10, that area get even more volatile. Maybe somethig will form and I dont think anyone in Florida does not want a weak system right now. Its too hot and we need rain.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree... this system does definately bear watching. The shear in the area should also be watched if it dies down or shifts, possibly providing a more favorable environment for development.

[gkrangers]

bear watching.

[MiamiensisWx]

Very funny, gkrangers!



Great photo, too!

[artist]

Rainstorm- ? for you - why would the shear not be a problem for this area but is for 97L if it is due to what you said about the epac storms?

[rainstorm]

simple artist. shear caused by east pac conditions generally is most prevalent across the mdr in the atlantic, or mean developmet region, which is considered south of 20n. any developemnt off the se coast should occur above 25n, north of the worst shear.

[rainstorm]

and of course, im not implying this will be a cat5 by any means

[artist]

rainstorm - thanks for your reply.

[wxmann_91]

simple artist. shear caused by east pac conditions generally is most prevalent across the mdr in the atlantic, or mean developmet region, which is considered south of 20n. any developemnt off the se coast should occur above 25n, north of the worst shear.

An active EPAC doesn't mean a quiet Atlantic, storms in the EPAC don't induce shear over the Atlantic. For example, look at this image:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/2004/storms/ivan/IJIJSTORMS.GIF

I think you are thinking of El Nino, which induces strong shear in the mean development region, causing tropical waves that normally develop in the Atlantic and move poleward to continue moving westward into the Pacific, and then develop there in a more favorable environment.

The same thing explains why active Atlantic years are usually accompanied by quiet Pacific years, and vice versa.

[jkt21787]

simple artist. shear caused by east pac conditions generally is most prevalent across the mdr in the atlantic, or mean developmet region, which is considered south of 20n. any developemnt off the se coast should occur above 25n, north of the worst shear.

An active EPAC doesn't mean a quiet Atlantic, storms in the EPAC don't induce shear over the Atlantic. For example, look at this image:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/2004/storms/ivan/IJIJSTORMS.GIF

I think you are thinking of El Nino, which induces strong shear in the mean development region, causing tropical waves that normally develop in the Atlantic and move poleward to continue moving westward into the Pacific, and then develop there in a more favorable environment.

The same thing explains why active Atlantic years are usually accompanied by quiet Pacific years, and vice versa.

she is. She is even making reference to this season as being an El Nino year on other boards, though we know thats far from the case.

To my knowledge (though a pro should clarify) storms in the EPAC have no bearing on shear in the Atlantic, except during El Nino years, which this is not.

[Recurve]

The 8/21 12z CMC evaporates the eastern Atlantic wave about mid Atlantic, and doesn't show the development over Florida -- the model loop goes to 72 hours out. Last night's zero-UTC run had a large low over the Keys at 144 hours (and similar evaporation or the wave at mid Atlantic). Have to see how this shows up in subsequent runs. NWS discussions have talked about increasing rain chances and a low over south Florida for next weekend.