My Tropical outlook for tonight(Unoffical)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Tropical outlook for 8-21-2005


The Eastern Atlantic system is not looking very good right now. With its LLC moving over the Cape verdes. In which the convection is fading away from it. Most of the shears/convection is with in the itcz to the south.

Tropical depression 10 is nothing any more. No organizion whats so ever. Also a upper low is making sure of that.

The system that is moving into the BOC seems to have a very broad LLC. But its broad with very little convection. I would like to see alot more organizion before sending a recon into it. I don't expect a depression out of it.

So all together no tropical depressions or cyclone for the Atlatnic intill Thursday at this moment.


The Eastern Pacific

Hillary is huge with tropical storm force winds of 275 miles. With 85 mph winds. Expect her to head northwestard into cooler over the next 36 hours. But to max out around 95 mph.

Another system models been hinting out developing around 9 north/90 west. This system is looking very good...I expect something to develop out of it before anything develops over the atlatnic.

[rainstorm]

good points. nice write up

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks rainstorm. I don't expect really anything to develop over the Atlantic. Unlike what the Gfs shows...Even so the Eastern Atlantic system doe's hold the best chance of becoming something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscats do show now that there is a broad LLC near 13.5. With some winds of near 35 knots about 100 miles to the south. But on the same note. The convection is dieing which in all the northern side is very weak. So if convection keeps weaken expect this to open back up.


So any way it is now a tropical distrabance.

[rainstorm]

i still think the most likely place is off the se coast for now. i am discounting the boc, as its too close to hilary

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The southeast system is possible. But it is like 6 to 7 days off. Still to far off to be of much concern.

I agree that BOC system doe's not look like anything more then spring time convection.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks rainstorm. I don't expect really anything to develop over the Atlantic. Unlike what the Gfs shows...Even so the Eastern Atlantic system doe's hold the best chance of becoming something.

I'm shocked you don't expect the system to develop at ALL. I know it will be slow, but there's no reason not to believe that it can't slowly get it's act together as it moves west. I mean, it is that time of the year

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I did not say it could not develop later on. But it doe's not look the promising over the next 36 to 48 hours. Also new quickscats do in fact show a closed LLC but the northern side is weak. In with the weaken of the convection expect it to open back up. I say we will have a depresssion around 15 to 18 north/48 west around thursday.