12 z EURO and Florida

[Anonymous]

The GFS actually takes "Jose"..from 97L to fish storm...and makes a strom behind it a monster into FL

[artist]

ncdowneast - I started a thread about that off the nc coast.

[gkrangers]

The GFS actually takes "Jose"..from 97L to fish storm...and makes a strom behind it a monster into FL

Just for the sake of sanity...its probably not a good idea to discuss the 384hr GFS every 6 hours...next run its probably going to recurve that NYC...then FL storm. Or bring it into NC..or bring it thru the Carribbean and into the GOM....or bring it up the Chesapeake....or into Boston...or over Bermuda...or..or.or...

[dwg71]

Buster is bullish on all of the "systems", but right now the plain fact is we have one invest and it looks weak. Everything else is just pure speculation.

I just don't see any of the four developing...

[ronjon]

its been my experience on this site and other forums that there is a GOM and florida bias.Every system has to be a Gommer or florida threat atleast at first.Earlier a couple of models indicated a system off the SE coast and one south of florida but NOBODY even mentioned the possible development off of NC.Its that train of thought that goes into making 97L a GOM threat and its hilarious to see something talked about this hard that far away!!

Nobodys talkin about 97L threatening anything. The "wave" north of Hispanola is what we're discussing becoming a TD and parhaps a TS when it gets to the bahamas. I think you're in a roundabout way addressing -removed-. True -removed- is made w/o science or reasoning. The "wave" we are discussing has model support. In fact, all global models take it west across the bahamas and either thru the FL straits to the GOM or across the peninsula as a Trop Wave, TD or weak TS. The wave has so much interest becuz its close to home, has model support, and its the peak of hurricane season.

[sma10]

The GFS actually takes "Jose"..from 97L to fish storm...and makes a strom behind it a monster into FL

The only sane conclusion you can make about the long range GFS is that there appears to be a possibility of an active period of tropical activity over the next two weeks. Taking any of the actual tracks with any kind of seriousness is pure folly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Buster is bullish on all of the "systems", but right now the plain fact is we have one invest and it looks weak. Everything else is just pure speculation.

I just don't see any of the four developing...

I mostly agree. But the Eastern Atlantic system doe's have a broad LLC with 35 knot winds to its south. But convection is dieing over the northern side. In which case is weak any way so expect it to open back into a wave soon.

I don't think anything else stands a chance.

[Steve]

What's a North Carolina?



Steve

[Anonymous]

Buster is bullish on all of the "systems", but right now the plain fact is we have one invest and it looks weak. Everything else is just pure speculation.

I just don't see any of the four developing...

That's enough. Right now. All you seem to do is reverse wishcast.

[deltadog03]

ok, so, if the EURO is right or even close this could travel the gulf...WHY?? look at the ridge that will push it west...hmmm

if you are talking about 97L that is still over a week away possibly even 10 days or more away and you think that the same ridge will be in place that long?

<RICKY>

Im talking about that system on the EURO....that is x td10 right??

[weatherwindow]

here's a suggestion.....instead of debating the modelling on 97L or #10, let's talk synoptics...it appears that the high amplitude pattern extent 1995-2003 has reappeared since mid july and may dominate the remainder of of august and sept. that pattern was typified by early recurvature of higher latitude systems of eastern genesis. island/US threats tended to be of two camps: either low latitude systems of western genesis or rapidly intensifying systems forming between 70-75 deg w, slipping south of the persistent east coast troughiness. the above pattern may persist thru the remainder of august and the first three weeks of sept. thereafter, of course, the focus shifts to the caribbean as a source of potential US landfalls. given the correlation between early season and late season activity, the greatest threat may, in actuality, devolve to the western/southwestern caribbean late sept-early nov....JMHO......rich

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

dwg71 if you can't respond politely do not respond at all.
Arrogance is not an intelligent technique. Such behavior is inexcusable.

[dwg71]

dwg71 if you can't respond politely do not respond at all.
Arrogance is not an intelligent technique. Such behavior is inexcusable.

I wasn't inpolite. I'm just not as bullish on these systems. 97 has achance, but the others do not.

[mike815]

yeah there certainly not weak and yeah stop the reverse -removed-.

[fci]

Wow!

Y'all chill out.

My gosh, "reverse -removed-"; "That's enough. Right now."

How about some civility from all of you?
Every one is entitled to their opinions and to express them on the board as long as they don't get off the deep end; and it seems like neither Mike or dwg went off the deep end!

[vbhoutex]

If you have a problem with the way a poster is doing something on this site:

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2. If that doesn't come to some sort of solution, then contact a staff person to deal with it. DO NOT TRY TO DEAL WITH IT YOURSELF ON THE OPEN BOARD or you may be subject to staff reprimanding you for your actions, possibly in a way you would not like.

[TS Zack]

People can tell who knows what they are talking about and who doesn't. They can also tell the difference between -removed- and reverse -removed-.

Some of the things people post on the board you have to take with a grain of salt!

[beachbum_al]

Okay so there is something forming near FL in GOM and could end out in the GOM? My question is why isn't the local channels in my area talking about it then. The only things they mention unless it is on the 10 pm news is the stuff over the Yucatan, the reminants of TD 10, and the wave that came off of the Africa Coast.

[TS Zack]

Its forming the remains of TD 10 near Fl.

[tailgater]

dwg71 if you can't respond politely do not respond at all.
Arrogance is not an intelligent technique. Such behavior is inexcusable.

I wasn't inpolite. I'm just not as bullish on these systems. 97 has achance, but the others do not.

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EVENING IS OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND SRN
MEXICO WITH A 1008 MB LOW WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 17N91W MOVING
W TOWARDS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. THE LOW IS AMAZINGLY
WELL-DEFINED FOR BEING INLAND...AND THE OBS OVER SRN MEXICO SHOW
A GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN DICTATING
WHETHER IT STAYS OVER LAND OR EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THE LATTER SHOULD OCCUR THEN IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN...AND CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE IF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.
Sounds like the PRO's think it has a chance