Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

is it just me or is our 97L looking a bit weak tonight?

<RICKY>

Nope. I agree it looks it the northern end is dieing. While the rest of the system looks to be a itcz/with banding. I don't know about its chances.

[Patrick99]

I think it will have to wait until it nears the islands, in order to really get anything going.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agreed. The north end appears to have lost most of it's strong convection it has had in previous days. Also, most of the entire system itself appears to have lost it's deep convection. It now has mostly yellows with only a few smaller areas of oranges and reds, although the system has a good shape overall.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

The system appears to be pushing between the two masses of dry air to the north and south. Inflow of some of this dry air into the circulation of the system may be causing a loss of convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

One notable thing: the system now looks very similar to what Irene looked like several weeks ago when she first moved off the coast of Africa: she was a big wave with a broad, spiraling circulation. At first, she was very good-looking but over time, although she maintained her good overall shape and large size, convection began to die down. Soon she was struggling badly, also due to dry air and some shear. It appears that INVEST.97L may be very similar to Irene and may be approaching her fate and struggles.

[WeatherEmperor]

yeah you are right. hmmm could be interesting if we have nothing develop for the rest of August.

<RICKY>

[rainstorm]

looks like its drying up. as it comes west it will encounter a large amount of shear, unless the east pac quiets down

[superfly]

as it comes west it will encounter a large amount of shear, unless the east pac quiets down

what?

[Scorpion]

I really have no idea what rainstorm is talking about when she says an EPAC system will induce shear in a system over 2000 miles away.

[gkrangers]

http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/9 ... N.251W.jpg

Appears to be a broad LLC at 13.5N and 27W.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/97L.INVEST/qscat/nceps/20050821.2014.NCEP.wind.97L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb.12N.251W.jpg

Appears to be a broad LLC at 13.5N and 27W.

Thanks for pointing that out, gkrangers. I thought it had a center of circulation trying to form as well.

[clfenwi]

805 TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS S OF 20N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SEVERAL LOW AND
MID-LEVEL LAYERS OF CLOUDS ARE MAKING THE EXACT CENTER OF THE
LOW A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE PUTS IT
ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO N OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS NOT AS GREAT AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-32W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING PULLED UP
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE
VERDES TONIGHT. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY ON THE CUSP OF A SHEAR
GRADIENT...IS ENTRAINING DRY DUSTY AIR TO ITS N...AND IS
HOVERING JUST S OF THE 26C OCEANIC ISOTHERM...BUT GIVEN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOW PRES NEAR THE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.

[Sanibel]

This wave is moist and looking good. Its problem is it is still too far east...

[Jim Cantore]

This thing is a MONSTER even more then Irene was at this stage

I personally think this will be Jose/Katrina (most likely Jose) within 48 hours

[superfly]

http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/97L.INVEST/qscat/nceps/20050821.2014.NCEP.wind.97L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb.12N.251W.jpg

Appears to be a broad LLC at 13.5N and 27W.

Convection consolidating around the broad circulation? Also another big wave about to move off Africa.

[wxman57]

I see they've issued some model data for 97W:



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 0000 050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 26.7W 13.2N 28.7W 13.9N 30.7W 14.8N 33.0W
BAMM 12.5N 26.7W 13.4N 28.8W 14.3N 31.0W 15.3N 33.6W
A98E 12.5N 26.7W 12.8N 29.4W 13.4N 32.1W 14.3N 34.7W
LBAR 12.5N 26.7W 13.3N 29.4W 14.5N 32.4W 15.8N 35.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 0000 050825 0000 050826 0000 050827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 35.3W 17.5N 39.5W 18.9N 42.8W 20.5N 46.5W
BAMM 16.3N 36.2W 18.1N 40.8W 19.6N 44.4W 21.1N 48.3W
A98E 15.3N 37.2W 16.9N 42.1W 18.4N 46.5W 20.8N 49.8W
LBAR 17.2N 38.9W 19.6N 43.8W 20.3N 47.1W 17.2N 51.5W
SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS
DSHP 56KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 26.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 21.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Finnally the graphic for 97L is out.Going fishing from almost all of them.

[caribepr]

Finnally the graphic for 97L is out.Going fishing from almost all of them.

But...not that high, Luis. I'm not going to the bank on these models yet. Though you know I'll be thrilled to do so...tomorrow! maybe

[Stratosphere747]

I've wondered how can there be any models for a undeveloped system?

Should it not actually have a true closed circulation before models are being ran?

[BensonTCwatcher]

I've wondered how can there be any models for a undeveloped system?

Should it not actually have a true closed circulation before models are being ran?

Precisely. Also, as we have seen all season. The waves travel West or WNW until they develop sufficient height to begin to be steered ( say 200 to 500mb) as the models see them. The models have not seen the dry air and shear which keeps even the largest systems weak until they get farther west. Let's see what they look like in 36 hrs when this system may begin to really develop.

this will stay west IMO until it shakes the dry air

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8v4km.html

Also, I don't think that if it gets away from the dry (not SAL) air the shear pattern will inhibit the development to the degree we saw in the July pattern.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING... THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE. HOWEVER... IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

10:30 PM TWO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gfdl kills it

078
WHXX04 KWBC 220522
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.1 26.7 275./13.0
6 13.9 26.7 4./ 7.7
12 15.0 27.8 316./16.1
18 15.8 29.1 302./14.7
24 16.8 30.7 301./17.9
30 17.7 32.9 293./23.3
36 17.4 35.2 262./22.1
42 17.4 37.3 269./19.5
48 17.2 39.6 267./22.5
54 16.9 41.3 257./16.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN