Low Pressure has formed in SW Yucatan

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 212130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN OVER LAND... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AFTER IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$





5:30 PM TWO about future BOC system.

[ConvergenceZone]

what direction do you think this will move once is emerges in the gulf of mexico?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We could be seeing another classic reason why tropical depression 10 should of been a tropical cyclone from Monday intill Mid day Wednesday. Yes I see a broad LLC. But convection with a tighting is going to have to happen if this ever wents a chance.

[Stratosphere747]

I thought I detected an area of LP, but kinda discounted it because of being over land.

One of the pro's have mentioned that an area of LP can actually develop over land. Still looks though as the flow will take it into Mexico fairly quickly.

[gkrangers]

We could be seeing another classic reason why tropical depression 10 should of been a tropical cyclone from Monday intill Mid day Wednesday. Yes I see a broad LLC. But convection with a tighting is going to have to happen if this ever wents a chance.

ex TD10 was a naked swirl with litlte to no organized convection, it WAS a TD. But there was no reason to write advisories on it...and it certainly was not a TS.

This Yucatan system could be another Gert. Get over water long enough to get an LLC with sufficient convection to be a TC.

[djtil]

with the high anchored over the gulf only one way this will go....west.

[cycloneye]

I thought I detected an area of LP, but kinda discounted it because of being over land.

One of the pro's have mentioned that an area of LP can actually develop over land. Still looks though as the flow will take it into Mexico fairly quickly.

Yes Mexico bound and little time to develop if it trys to do so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EVENING IS OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND SRN
MEXICO WITH A 1008 MB LOW WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 17N91W MOVING
W TOWARDS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. THE LOW IS AMAZINGLY
WELL-DEFINED FOR BEING INLAND...AND THE OBS OVER SRN MEXICO SHOW
A GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN DICTATING
WHETHER IT STAYS OVER LAND OR EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THE LATTER SHOULD OCCUR THEN IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN...AND CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE IF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE...A MUCH LARGER UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
ALABAMA WITH A LARGE AREA OF EASTERLIES FLOWING ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE GULF N OF 22N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOVING WWD IN
THIS FLOW FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 85W-95W. OTHER HEAVY TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA...BUT ONLY A FEW OF THESE MAY BRUSH THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.


Its at 17 north inland...In also heading westward. So it appears that it wil not develop as long as its over land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is moving northwestward. In is now on the coastline. Look at that big flare up of convection. I expect this to get over the BOC with in the next few hours. Then become a tropical depression before the days out. If given a chance this could go some where.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

[southerngale]

Yeah, like in Gert's footsteps into Mexico. JMO.

[Anonymous]

Yep...I guess I was not "TOO BULLISH" LOL