Typhoon MAWAR - Target: Japan

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

21/1202 UTC 22.8N 139.9E T6.5/6.5 MAWAR


125 to 130 knots doe's not look bad now.

[WeatherEmperor]

doesnt look like it will take much for this thing to become a super typhoon.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the Jtwc is doing very good on the winds with this system. a 6.5/6.5 is around 125 to 130 knots. Its around a super typhoon.

[Derek Ortt]

winds are typically much lower for similar looking systems in the WPAC due to lower background pressures. JMA's are typically vastly superior, plus they dont give rediculous forecasts of cat 4's into Japan when the storms typically weaken to tropical storms or cat 1s by the time they reach the islands

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 23.2N 139.6E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 23.9N 139.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
45HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
69HF 241800UTC 29.6N 136.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT

[HurricaneBill]

winds are typically much lower for similar looking systems in the WPAC due to lower background pressures. JMA's are typically vastly superior, plus they dont give rediculous forecasts of cat 4's into Japan when the storms typically weaken to tropical storms or cat 1s by the time they reach the islands

Storms have hit Japan as Cat 3s and 4s before. Vera in 1959 hit as a Cat 5.

[Derek Ortt]

is it a 5 according to JTWC or by JMA?

I have seen many instances where JTWC has had the pressure 40mb too low. Also remember one total joke of a sequence where they said a TC was dissipating over water, 12 hours later, it had rapidly intensified into a cat 4, yet they still said it was dissipating

[wxmann_91]

Looks like Mawar has passed its peak, some westerly shear and dry air getting to it. But knowing JTWC, it will still reach a super typhoon even though it shouldn't have.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200752ZAUG2005//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.1N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.2N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.7N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 28.4N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.0N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 39.3N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 44.9N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 139.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


It's now a Supertyphoon.

[senorpepr]

Official bulletin has Typhoon Mawar at 125 mph.

WTPQ20 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 23.5N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 24.7N 138.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
45HF 240000UTC 27.3N 137.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
69HF 250000UTC 30.7N 136.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT =

[LaPlaceFF]

When is a Wpac storm considered a supertyphoon?

[Huckster]

The threshold for a Super-typhoon is 150 mph or 130 kt.

Subject: A3) What is a super-typhoon? What is a major hurricane ? What is an intense hurricane ?
"Super-typhoon" is a term utilized by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center for typhoons that reach maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds of at least 65 m/s (130 kt, 150 mph). This is the equivalent of a strong Saffir-Simpson category 4 or category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin or a category 5 severe tropical cyclone in the Australian basin.

"Major hurricane" is a term utilized by the National Hurricane Center for hurricanes that reach maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds of at least 50 m/s (96 kt, 111 mph). This is the equivalent of category 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

"Intense hurricane" is an unofficial term , but is often used in the scientific literature. It is the same as "major hurricane".

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A3.html

[P.K.]

After the big increase in winds yesterday it seems to have stabilised at 95kts.

T0511 (MAWAR)
Issued at 06:00 UTC 22 Aug 2005
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 23.7N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 25.0N 138.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 240600UTC 27.7N 137.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 250600UTC 31.2N 136.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT

[Gorky]

The one thing I notice about the JTWC is they often seem to bias there current intensities based on prior predictions. If they predict a storm like this on is going to take 24 hours to become a typhoon, they won't upgrade even if it is evident from visible presentation of the storm that it is a typhoon. In this case, Mawar had a T4.0 rating, and looked even better to me, yet they only uppped it to 50kt, It had a t5.5 rating and looked like a strong cat3 or even cat4 to me with a small crystal clear eye, and it was rated 80kt... not even cat2. On the flipside, they predicted Mawar to reach Super Typhoon status and have upgraded it this morning despite it not looking anywhere near as healthy. Earlier on, the centre was almost exposed due to shear! At the moment it doesn't look all that much more impressive than TS Guchal (see image). I suspect the forecasters at the JTWC are mayeb too influenced by performance statistics for their forecasts than actually nailing the right intensity. After all, if it's not hitting an American interest, they really don't need to be all that accurate.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZAUG2005//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 25.8N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 29.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.1N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 36.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 41.2N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 48.5N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 137.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z,
231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (GUCHOL)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



T0511 (MAWAR)
Issued at 21:00 UTC 22 Aug 2005RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 24.8N 138.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM

FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 27.3N 136.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 241800UTC 30.4N 136.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 251800UTC 34.8N 136.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT


Fortunately for Japan, MAWAR has continued to weaken after reaching Super Typhoon status for a brief hours. The forecasted path is the same, and MAWAR should make landfall in Japan as a typhoon or very strong tropical storm.

[P.K.]

Winds are back up to 85kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 26.6N 137.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 30.2N 136.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 250600UTC 33.2N 137.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 260600UTC 35.6N 138.8E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

[Dave C]

Does anyone know of any sites I could visit that would show water temps in west Pacific basin? Thanks!

[P.K.]

Try this http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/global50.ice.gif

We are looking at a rather strong storm at landfall here.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 30.1N 137.1E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 34.1N 137.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 260600UTC 37.2N 141.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 270600UTC 41.7N 146.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT

[arlwx]

From Radio Australia this morning:

A powerful typhoon is expected to batter the Japanese capital Tokyo within hours, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall.

Typhoon Mawar is less than 100 kilometres from Shizuoka prefecture with winds gusting up to 144 kilometres an hour.

It is expected to hit Tokyo then move north across the country.

Tokyo and its surrounding prefectures are home to around 27 million people.

Flood warnings have been issued for the Tokyo region, and dozens of flights, express trains and ferry services in and out of the capital have been cancelled.

Officials are reporting waves up to 11 metres high in the Shizuoka prefecture.

[WindRunner]

Hmmm, 11 meters is 36 feet! Sounds like fun there . . .