12 z EURO and Florida

[dwg71]

Wait a sec...there are three possible GOM:::

1. 97L...in a long time...if it makes it across
2. Whats left of TD-10
3. The system recon is going to check out tomorrow that is currently over the Yucatan

I cant believe you put 97L as a possible GOM. Its also a possible New England Storm, a SE US storm, a fl panhandle storm, a possible NC storm, a possible fish, a possible nothing - if it doesnt develop. TD10 has been dead for nearly a week, and recon will only go if there is something there. Chance are that nothing will be there. Recon must be bored. They took a wasted trip into 10 and this appears to be another.

[Anonymous]

Take it easy...jeez. The reason I mentioned 97L is because some models hint on taking it there. Chill.

[artist]

dwg71 - seems you might want to take a deep breath there yourself...

[mike815]

right naso chill everyone time will tell

[x-y-no]

Hmmm, 12z sure is more bullish on this Florida system than earlier runs were.

Forms it in the northern Bahamas and moves just south of west across into the gulf ...

(12z ECMWF SLP & 500mb heights)

4 days:



5 days:



6 days:



7 days:

[Scorpion]

I like that map . Would probably give me some TS winds at least, not to mention a day off school.

[WeatherEmperor]

I like that map . Would probably give me some TS winds at least, not to mention a day off school.

Days off school are always welcome.

<RICKY>

[artist]

scorpion - do they close the schools here for TS's?

[Scorpion]

Yes they do I believe. Don't wanna take a chance if it intensifies to a hurricane.

[mike815]

whoa that is a bit concerning thanks for that

[jlauderdal]

Still at 2% as it was 3 days ago.

Could be more like -2%

<RICKY>

i just dropped concern factor 1%, its the end of august so we have to give it a shot but td 10 forget it and this other thing i doubt. 1%. mike naso i dont want see a video tonight with you preeciting a 2 or higher nailing florida later this week.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im just curious. What system is that 12Z Euro map developing? A totally new system?

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

Im just curious. What system is that 12Z Euro map developing? A totally new system?

<RICKY>

It's the mess currently north of Hispaniola. The Euro moves that into the Bahamas, gradually more northward till it gets into the northern Bahamas and starts to develop, then west to WSW across Florida into the Gulf.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im just curious. What system is that 12Z Euro map developing? A totally new system?

<RICKY>

It's the mess currently north of Hispaniola. The Euro moves that into the Bahamas, gradually more northward till it gets into the northern Bahamas and starts to develop, then west to WSW across Florida into the Gulf.

Well the 12Z Euro must build a monster ridge off the east coast for it to develop this thing and push it WSW into the FL east coast. Right now I wouldnt argue against it considering most of the global models really blew it when it came to forecasting a big trough to dive down to north FL. Well all know that never happened.

<RICKY>

[dwg71]

Take it easy...jeez. The reason I mentioned 97L is because some models hint on taking it there. Chill.

Most models take it north, GOM would be 10+ days out. No reason to say that GOM has 3 possible systems when in reality it has none at this time.

97L is so far out and may or may not even develop. 10 - are we still talking about 10 its dead. and The whole Yuc system is merely speculative - theres nothing to it its not even an invest. Tropics are quiet right now. If 97 doesnt make it we are most assured at a august of 2/1/0.

I give 97 less than a 30% chance of making it.

[deltadog03]

ok, so, if the EURO is right or even close this could travel the gulf...WHY?? look at the ridge that will push it west...hmmm

[WeatherEmperor]

ok, so, if the EURO is right or even close this could travel the gulf...WHY?? look at the ridge that will push it west...hmmm

if you are talking about 97L that is still over a week away possibly even 10 days or more away and you think that the same ridge will be in place that long?

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

its been my experience on this site and other forums that there is a GOM and florida bias.Every system has to be a Gommer or florida threat atleast at first.Earlier a couple of models indicated a system off the SE coast and one south of florida but NOBODY even mentioned the possible development off of NC.Its that train of thought that goes into making 97L a GOM threat and its hilarious to see something talked about this hard that far away!!

[mike815]

oh yeah i agree but with the ex td 10 it will impact fl somehow and then go out into the gulf i think it has to survive again first and 97l is way too far away for sure it may turn out to sea though dont see it as a GOM threat but i guess u never know

[WeatherEmperor]

its been my experience on this site and other forums that there is a GOM and florida bias.Every system has to be a Gommer or florida threat atleast at first.Earlier a couple of models indicated a system off the SE coast and one south of florida but NOBODY even mentioned the possible development off of NC.Its that train of thought that goes into making 97L a GOM threat and its hilarious to see something talked about this hard that far away!!

yeah you are right. but to try to put things into perspective you have to understand(although not necessarily agree) why this happens. The past few years, FL and GOM has seen alot of hurricane landfalls. Lets start at 2002 and move our way to 2005(I will get to previous years in just a moment). In 2002, Lili and Isidore had major impacts on the Gulf coast as most of us know here. In 2003 we had Isabel impact North Carolina. In 2004 we had 4 hurricanes impact the state of Florida and one of those, Ivan having a very significant impact on the Gulf Coast yet again. And in 2005 we have had hurricane Dennis impact the Gulf Coast yet again. Now we go back in time a few years from 1996-1999. In 1996 hurricanes Bertha and Fran hit North Carolina. In 1998 hurricane Bonnie hit North Carolina. In 1999 hurricane Floyd hit North Carolina and that same year Dennis gave North Carolina problems as well. So there was a significant North Carolina threat in the late 90's whereas the last few years there has been a significant gulf coast/ Florida threat. The point is, no matter where you live on the east coast or gulf coast be vigilant of tropical systems. Its just that right now the gulf and florida are impacted the most but that could change.

<RICKY>