If Necessary task at Bay Of Campeche

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 211530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 21 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 22/2100Z A. 23/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 22/1800Z C. 23/0230Z
D. 20.0N 93.0W D. 20.0N 94.5W
E. 22/2000Z TO 22/0100Z E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HOURLY FIXES IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


Tomorrow afternoon if needed a mission will go and investigate this area that will emerge from the Yucatan.

[Javlin]

I think I would save the flight for something more impressive.Maybe things will change but have a tough time seeing it right now.

[gkrangers]

I think I would save the flight for something more impressive.Maybe things will change but have a tough time seeing it right now.

They won't go unless the disturbance is over water and showing signs of a surface center or other organization.

[perk]

Casper if there's any chance that a depression could form from this system, then it's well worth investigating.I'm glad that decision is in the NHC's hand.P.S. i've seen flights scheduled for systems less organized than this one.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know that Bret and Gert formed there and eventually became named storms but is there a chance that this thing could become a TD but never a named storm because it will move too fast?

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Surface feature: 19.6-91.9

[baygirl_1]

That is an interesting swirl down there. When it does move out over the BOC, it very well could strengthen pretty good. It looks like the wind shear is not too bad in that area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8sht/wg8shtjava.html
Of course, the water temperatures are very high in the Gulf:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/latest_sst.gif
So, it sure seems like a good environment down there. But, unfortunately for Mexico, it looks the winds will push it west...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html ... unless that big high (that's making things unbearably hot for us right now) decides to move away.

[Frank P]

center of the rotation appears to be in the general vicinity of 18.0 and 90.9 as best I can determine... moving off to the west... not even heading towards the GOM at the moment.... strong ouflow boundry coming off the northern yucatan penisular....

unless this system can 1) get some northerly component or 2) redevelop a LLC more to the north .... nothing is going to happen with it .....

[dhweather]

center of the rotation appears to be in the general vicinity of 18.0 and 90.9 as best I can determine... moving off to the west... not even heading towards the GOM at the moment.... strong ouflow boundry coming off the northern yucatan penisular....

unless this system can 1) get some northerly component or 2) redevelop a LLC more to the north .... nothing is going to happen with it .....

That was my take on it this morning when I prepared the GUTS report.

[Frank P]

center of the rotation appears to be in the general vicinity of 18.0 and 90.9 as best I can determine... moving off to the west... not even heading towards the GOM at the moment.... strong ouflow boundry coming off the northern yucatan penisular....

unless this system can 1) get some northerly component or 2) redevelop a LLC more to the north .... nothing is going to happen with it .....

That was my take on it this morning when I prepared the GUTS report.

just read your GUTS report DH... I think we are in agreement.... of course, what the heck do we know... doesn't look all that promising for TC development at the moment... obviously the NHC sees something down the road that were missing I would dare to speculate

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Could be another Bret or Gert. But who knows...I may need to start paying some time on this.

[Swimdude]

Could be another Bret or Gert. But who knows...I may need to start paying some time on this.

Oh no, not another 40-mph TS.

[WeatherEmperor]

Could be another Bret or Gert. But who knows...I may need to start paying some time on this.

Oh no, not another 40-mph TS.

hey now, you of all know how deadly tropical storms can be in the Houston area right?

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There seems to be a broad spin moving into the BOC.