For all of you people I disagree with out there......

[linkerweather]

CHeck out the 12z GFS 384 hour.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_384s.gif

INcidentally, the GFS has had a major hurricane somwehere in the W. Atl for about 6 straight runs now, (this is not the wave near the Cape Verde Islands now). A few runs had this looking CHarleyish but the last 3 (since 00z last night have made an east coast landfall.

Again, keep in mind this is a model that, like any, does not perform well beyond 8 or 9 days at all

[WindRunner]

It's actually been there since late Wednesday on the runs, though a couple of runs ran it up the big islands and did not deepen it as much. The majority of the runs, however, show a similar track.

18Z 8/17 GFS

[Rainband]

Interesting. Like you said beyond 8-9 days out. Will be watching to see if a trend begins to develop with other models.

[linkerweather]

It's actually been there since late Wednesday on the runs, though a couple of runs ran it up the big islands and did not deepen it as much. The majority of the runs, however, show a similar track.

18Z 8/17 GFS

Oops, i meant 6 days not 6 runs. My bad

[WeatherEmperor]

Am I correct in seeing a very very very deep low pressure area making landfall in the New England states in tat 384hr GFS?

<RICKY>

[ameriwx2003]

Am I correct in seeing a very very very deep low pressure area making landfall in the New England states in tat 384hr GFS?

<RICKY>

I am sure in the coming several days different GFS runs will show that System hitting from Texas to New England :)

[WeatherEmperor]

Am I correct in seeing a very very very deep low pressure area making landfall in the New England states in tat 384hr GFS?

<RICKY>

I am sure in the coming several days different GFS runs will show that System hitting from Texas to New England :)

lol. i know the "384hr" should have been the first indicator in my mind that its in all likelyhood not going to happen. Ahhhh the GFS does some strange things doesnt it?

<RICKY>

[truballer#1]

here is some more gfs maps

[vacanechaser]

Am I correct in seeing a very very very deep low pressure area making landfall in the New England states in tat 384hr GFS?

<RICKY>

I am sure in the coming several days different GFS runs will show that System hitting from Texas to New England :)

lol. i know the "384hr" should have been the first indicator in my mind that its in all likelyhood not going to happen. Ahhhh the GFS does some strange things doesnt it?

<RICKY>

Very true!! However, the GFS as bad as it is, showed what would be Isabel tasking almost the exact path into North Carolina... Then of course it windshield wippered from New York to the Mexico Gulf coast... The trend of the GFS although that far away, has been pretty good to start... Very interesting couple of weeks ahead!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Sanibel]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

[truballer#1]

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

more gfs maps

[gkrangers]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

Its not TD10. Its a CV storm.

Anyway....this is just the GFS be entertaining.

There is a better chance of me getting laid in the next 10 minutes than this solution verifying.

[wzrgirl1]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

Its not TD10. Its a CV storm.

Anyway....this is just the GFS be entertaining.

There is a better chance of me getting laid in the next 10 minutes than this solution verifying.

[WindRunner]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

If it that is TD 10, how does it get back east of the islands?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_216l.gif

[Sanibel]

Oops! You're right, the date says 9-5. Has to be our CV wave. That's NY!

[ameriwx2003]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

That Storm at 384 Hrs isn't the old T.D. 10.. though some models are trying to develope something near Florida later this week.. It has to be up for debate though if it would be the old T.D. 10 IMO because in the last few days the TWO has referred to the area around Hispaiola as a tropical wave and has dropped the remnants of T.D. 10 from the Outlook

[gkrangers]

Oops! You're right, the date says 9-5. Has to be our CV wave. That's NY!

Its not TD10. Its not 97L. It comes from a wave behind 97L, that is possibly somewhere over Africa.

Its a typical GFS 15 day megastorm...it does this in the winter too...there is always a monster 970mb noreaster attacking New England in the 300hr range.

[WeatherEmperor]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

Its not TD10. Its a CV storm.

Anyway....this is just the GFS be entertaining.

There is a better chance of me getting laid in the next 10 minutes than this solution verifying.

You go boy!

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Hurumph, hurrrumph. Keep it clean gk.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That has to be TD10. The models are obviously over-reading it. This is a good example of the models being the "people I disagree with"...

Its not TD10. Its a CV storm.

Anyway....this is just the GFS be entertaining.

There is a better chance of me getting laid in the next 10 minutes than this solution verifying.

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!