11:30 AM TWO, RECON READY, IF NECESSARY, BOC TOMORROW!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 21, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of cloudiness and showers over Belize...the Yucatan
Peninsula...and the adjacent waters is moving toward the west-
northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Some development of this system is
possible when it emerges into in the southern Gulf of Mexico...and
an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will be available
to investigate the system late tomorrow afternoon...if necessary.

A large tropical wave is passing through and south of the Cape Verde
Islands. This system has changed little in organization since
yesterday...but has the potential for some development during the
next day or two as it moves slowly westward.

Shower activity with a tropical wave in the vicinity of Hispaniola
remains disorganized and tropical cyclone formation is not expected
with this system over the next day or two as it moves westward.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Monday.

Forecaster Franklin

[WindRunner]

I guess it's about time we start getting things popping up out of nowhere again. (not that we haven't been watching this for a while)

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like the flow would take anything straight into Mexico...

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the flow would take anything straight into Mexico...

better them then you right? I know its selfish but stay safe.

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

Is that CMC picking up on that system in hour 144? or is that old ex degenerate reguritated td 10?

[Stratosphere747]

That is the remains of 10...

[perk]

I would'nt be too quick about sending this system into Mexico.I think the flow you're referring is because of a high.I checked a few of the models and it looks like that high will back off to the east.

[WindRunner]

or is that old ex degenerate reguritated td 10?

nice way to reference it

[floridahurricaneguy]

So are we still expecting 10 to come back? I am thinking it was written off.

Matt

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is not sending a plane tomorrow to investigate the system, well, do we have a system??? They just want to be cautious with this one and be ready in case something pops. Remember that Bret, Franklin, and Gert developed in hours. They are ready to go, if necessary. Sometimes we critizise the NHC when systems show signs of development but they are not ready to go to investigate them.

[WeatherEmperor]

So are we still expecting 10 to come back? I am thinking it was written off.

Matt

some of us are just like some of the bad computer models. That is, they consantly develop something that hasnt done anything in almost a week. lol.

<RICKY>

[Stratosphere747]

So are we still expecting 10 to come back? I am thinking it was written off.

Matt

This is a totally different system than 10..

Whatever is left of 10 is still somewhere north of Hispaniola.

[WindRunner]

It's the top end of a wave in the caribbean, it was N of PR yesterday, where 10L was north of Hispaniola.

[tailgater]

from what I've read EXXXX td 10 is now over cuba and the Bahamas and what is now over Hispaniola is the Mid level system that has been trailing EXXXX TD 10 and a wave that that has caught up with it.

[yoda]

Is that CMC picking up on that system in hour 144? or is that old ex degenerate reguritated td 10?

It also looks like it is picking up on a tropical entity in the Mid-Atlantic region...

[HURAKAN]

It also looks like it is picking up on a tropical entity in the Mid-Atlantic region...

That's 97L 7 days into the future.

[wzrgirl1]

what does BOC stand for please?

[cycloneye]

what does BOC stand for please?

Bay Of Campeche

[tailgater]

Bay of Campeche

[wzrgirl1]

what does BOC stand for please?

Bay Of Campeche

Thanks!!