Typhoon MAWAR - Target: Japan
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
75kts already 
- JMA Track
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 22.6N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 23.0N 139.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 230600UTC 25.1N 138.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 240600UTC 28.2N 136.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
- JMA Track
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 22.6N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 23.0N 139.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 230600UTC 25.1N 138.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 240600UTC 28.2N 136.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
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wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
12 GMT 08/19/05 20.9N 142.8E 35 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 08/19/05 20.8N 142.3E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/20/05 20.8N 142.1E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 08/20/05 21.1N 141.7E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 08/20/05 21.4N 141.4E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/20/05 21.6N 141.3E 70 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 08/21/05 22.0N 140.7E 90 Category 1
06 GMT 08/21/05 22.4N 140.5N 115 Category 3
12 GMT 08/21/05 22.7N 140.1N 140 Category 4
50mph in 12hrs whoa
thats what I call rapid strengthening!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
WTPN31 PGTW 211500
1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Well, MAWAR IS BOMBING!!! The typhoon is on the verge of becoming a super typhoon. JAPAN, BE CAREFUL AND READY!
WTPN31 PGTW 211500
1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Well, MAWAR IS BOMBING!!! The typhoon is on the verge of becoming a super typhoon. JAPAN, BE CAREFUL AND READY!
0 likes
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Wow, 95kt ten minute averages at 12pm GMT. Pressure down to 930hPa.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 22.6N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 23.3N 139.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 231200UTC 25.6N 138.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 241200UTC 29.5N 138.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 22.6N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 23.3N 139.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 231200UTC 25.6N 138.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 241200UTC 29.5N 138.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
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wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
its very symmetrical
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148499
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.5N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.4N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.7N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 37.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 43.0N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 139.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
MiamiensisWx
Looking very powerful right now...
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
You click on "MAWAR" to see the photo and track.
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
You click on "MAWAR" to see the photo and track.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
WTPN31 PGTW 212100
1. TYPHOON 11W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 23.1N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.9N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.8N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.1N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.6N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.8N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.5N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 43.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 139.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 39 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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-
Derek Ortt
-
WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Derek Ortt wrote:I would put little faith in JTWC products and stick with the JMA. JTWC tends to voerstate the intensity constantly and not produce the best of forecast tracks
I don't even look at the JTWC forecasts, and just use the JMA ones. (Everyone else seems to use the JTWC on here though)
Anyway the latest advisory, 95kts:
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0511 MAWAR (0511)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 22.9N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 23.7N 139.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 241800UTC 29.6N 136.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
JMA Track
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WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WeatherEmperor wrote:whats the difference between the JTWC and JMA?
The JTWC is for the USA military, whereas the JMA are the official forecasters for this region. (Like the NHC are for the North Atlantic and North East Pacific)
The 95kts from the JMA converts to 1 minute averages of 111kts (If my conversion factor is right) so the JTWC winds are higher than the JMA ones.
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