Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

The 00z globals are as follows...

Recurvature in the vicinity of 45-55W.

GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPs.

They develop a weakness in the ridging in the central atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

Beautiful wave. I can't wait until this thing spins up. I think its gonna pull a Frances track.

Do you have anything at all to base that on?

Why do people have to do with this every wave?

Someone say Andrew-track and just get it over with.

gkrangers:

Just to save a lot of time with duplicate posts..... I'll guess this will pull an Andrew-like track, with Camille-like intensity, Gilbert-like size, and 1935 Labor Day-like timing.

If it becomes a fish, I will act frustrated and call the storm boring and worthless.
If it comes straight towards land I will say that I am "fearful" and "concerned," and wish the storm had stayed safely out at sea.

a fish storm is only worthless if it's under Cat 2 status If it's going to be a fish, it might as well go all out!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The size of the wave has almost no effect on the size of the system that develops from it. One example was Irene...huge wave, tiny system.

[gkrangers]

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE LOW HAS CURVED BANDS ON
THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE LOW HAS CURVED BANDS ON
THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W.


Yes this is a distrabance close or over the itcz by that. In yes there is a huge difference between a tropical cyclone with a well defined LLC but it geting sheared then convection forming over it. Then a broad distrabance on the itcz. The first case was much like Alison.

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, it's a big wave. It really shows up well on the below satellite. Also, the most difficult part is forecasting where the center will develop. As you can tell by lookign at the link, if it develops South, the chance of it being a fish is significantly diminished. Look in back of this wave. There are a couple of other POTENTIAL systems lined up.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Recurve]

Nice graphic Kevin. But I don't see a wave covering 30 degrees of latitude -- maybe with the ITC convection, but there's nothing north of 20n that's part of this, is there? Tell me what I'm missing that makes it as big as the entire east coast.


From the TWD:

Code: Select all

SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

[sma10]

Nice graphic Kevin. But I don't see a wave covering 30 degrees of latitude -- maybe with the ITC convection, but there's nothing north of 20n that's part of this, is there? Tell me what I'm missing that makes it as big as the entire east coast.


From the TWD:

Code: Select all

SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

Perhaps he's turned the system sideways?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC East of the Cape verdes near 14.5/20.5...It is moving at a quick pace to the west. The LLC looks to be slightly enlogated from southwest to northeast. With main area of banding to the southwest. The LLC has become slightly better defined. But with decrease of the really deep convection.

[Recurve]

I just spent 30 minutes looking at the navy sat pics, maps, and the IR loops. It IS a big thing out there, but there are some blobs to the north that I don't think are part of the wave, and 30 degrees of latitude, that's like 1800 nautical miles? That's a disaster movie, not a tropical wave, right?

By the way, run the CMC. at 144 hours, 97L is going away to the north in a gap in the ridge, but -- hey! What's that over Florida?

[Sanibel]

Not drying out. Plenty moist...

[RevDodd]

A wave as big as the Eastern US?

Hmmm: I think I saw that movie on the SciFi Channel yesterday....

[SkeetoBite]

Exact scale of 97L:



Source: NOAA METEOSAT7-IR4 08212005 0600UTC & SkeetobiteWeather.com GIS base map

[Frank P]

this wave certainly looks like it might be the real deal.... convection of the wave would take up a large portion of the GOM per Skeet's map....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxwatcher91]

wait sorry, I've been away and/or asleep for the past 12 hours lol why isnt 97L getting model plots? at least not on http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[FloridaDiver]

The 00z globals are as follows...

Recurvature in the vicinity of 45-55W.

GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPs.

They develop a weakness in the ridging in the central atlantic.

If true... this would be nice, 97L would be nothing more then perhaps a very big fish over time, fine by me, I'm enjoying the current lull in the season......

[wxwatcher91]

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

^^^from the 805 TWD

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

should be a recurve and even the gfs is less robust with the system. with the huge activity in the west, central and east pac, i feel shear will also hit it soon. the really good news is that it takes a long time for a wave to get all the way to the east coast, so if we have to wait for a future wave, it wont make it across till mid sept, and alot of the heart of the season will be gone by then

[cycloneye]

Mike the running of the tropical models has continued since the invest was up from 00:00z last night.They had made three runs but internaly not for public view,the 00:00z,6:00z and the 12:00z this last one has the initial plot at 12.0n-24.2w.

[Derek Ortt]

its not even in the atcf file