Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm actually in the midset of a possible Luis-Track

Hmm, what track was the Luis track? I remeber Luis, but I can't remember what track it took.

[Anonymous]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Floydbuster when do you think it will become a depression?

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, that's pretty close to the islands, and while not that close to the east coast, close enough to churn up some waves if the storm gets strong enough.

[BUD]

This could be one of those rare "giant" storms???

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Luis did impact the US Virgin Islands as a 140 mph Category 4 Hurricane. The name was retired and replaced with Lorenzo.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a link to Doctor Jeff Masters wunderblog and his thoughts on 97L...


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop

[ConvergenceZone]

This year, that quiet period is here now, and is forecast to continue for at least a few more days. However, this may change next week. The GFS model predicts that the high shear values that have dominated the Caribbean for the past few weeks will finally relax. And beginning Friday August 26, shear values may relax over the rest of the primary hurricane genesis area in the mid-Atlantic. The GFS shows an endless succession of tropical storms developing from tropical waves moving off of the coast of Africa beginning late next week. And from August 30 continuing through the end of the GFS's 16-day forecast period, the model predicts two and sometime three simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. This prediction has been maintained over at least the past four runs of the GFS model, so it is not a fluke one can blame on a single bad model run.

I've read his blogs before, pretty bright guy. The apart above from the Dr Jeff Masters link is particularly interesting!

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[Typhoon_Willie]

No problem CZ Dr. Masters has one heck of a tropical cyclone blog going on for sure! By the way here is a nice infra red shot of the entire Atlantic which of course includes 97L. 97L looks to become a beast indeed!


http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... mated.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is no beast yet. Its hardly a itcz distrabance. very broad. In at least 36 hours away from being upgraded.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Agreed that it is not a beast yet that is why I said it looks to become one!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S2K Disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Disclaimer: Also, for all official information, you may visit the National Hurricane Center's website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Just some brief speculation on 97L...

For me personally it is way too early to speculate an Ivan vs. Frances vs. Karl type track. I would like to wait and see about the resulting size and intensification speed before being sure. Also I have seen this recurvature scenario way too many times to have any full confidence in it. I would just rather wait until we get a clearer picture, as personally, I believe there is an equal chance of all three at this point in time. In terms of intensity, considering the dry air in the west central Atlantic, I believe it could be similar to Ivan (maybe not get as high as Ivan did, but a similar pattern) As we know, Ivan rapidly intensified to a category 4 hurricane, then drastically weakened to a category 2 hurricane because it pulled in some...not a great amount...of dry air...and I do believe it could be a similar situation with this system...although again, it is too far out to be sure.

I believe we should start getting a better picture as it becomes an organized cyclone and around the TUE/WED time frame.

[Hurricaneman]

Its a system that needs do be watched carefully, and it looks good

[gkrangers]

This is no beast yet. Its hardly a itcz distrabance. very broad. In at least 36 hours away from being upgraded.

Hello? Is this Matt? Shouldn't you be calling this Jose already ?

[MWatkins]

Its hardly a itcz distrabance. very broad. In at least 36 hours away from being upgraded.

Uhm. No.

MW

[Recurve]

A lot of good info and great images. It looks impressive for a wave, but obviously needs time, moisture, and low shear to develop.

Thanks for pointing out the Luis scenario. It would be very unfortunate for the islands.

Interested in seeing models and vapor loops. Hopeful for something to track, not something to get frightened about yet. Those tendrils to the south give a hint of something spinning up, and it actually looked to me like it was about to wrap surprising close to the coast. Going to try to see the shear situation and how much dry it might gulp to make it sputter rather than blow up.

[sma10]

Beautiful wave. I can't wait until this thing spins up. I think its gonna pull a Frances track.

Do you have anything at all to base that on?

Why do people have to do with this every wave?

Someone say Andrew-track and just get it over with.

gkrangers:

Just to save a lot of time with duplicate posts..... I'll guess this will pull an Andrew-like track, with Camille-like intensity, Gilbert-like size, and 1935 Labor Day-like timing.

If it becomes a fish, I will act frustrated and call the storm boring and worthless.
If it comes straight towards land I will say that I am "fearful" and "concerned," and wish the storm had stayed safely out at sea.

[wxmann_91]

Many of the models paint low shear all over the tropical Atlantic, but dissipate 97L. The GFS, meanwhile, is more robust, but covers the entire area with 20 kt shear, and, by the end of the period, dissipates the subtropical ridge.

This looks eerily similar with the Irene scenario - big wave but dry air and shear, and a recurve option.

But time will tell, models are to be taken with a grain of salt as every other model besides the GFS initializes too far north.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is no beast yet. Its hardly a itcz distrabance. very broad. In at least 36 hours away from being upgraded.

I think it's the size of it that's alarming. We've had alot of tight small systems lately, so this one is really standing out. If it develops, it has the potential of being a monster, but like ya said, we'll have to just wait and see if something wicked this way comes.